Quiet Weather Ends Tuesday
High pressure has built into the Finger Lakes while the belt of active weather has slunk to the south.
This will give us a second straight quiet day with no precipitation expected. Tuesday should be filled with sunshine and a few puffy fair-weather clouds.
Temperatures will be warm, but not too hot, with highs generally in the low 80s. A few mid 80s will be possible in and around Rochester, and between Elmira and Binghamton.
The evening will start clear, but clouds will push back in from the south. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will roll through near dawn Wednesday as a warm front lifts through the area.
Temperatures will get stuck near 70 degrees overnight as warm, humid air moves back in.
A key question to how Wednesday unfolds will be how quickly the early morning rain and clouds depart. Currently, a period of at least partial sunshine and warming into the low 80s is expected during the late morning and early afternoon.
This will set us up for scattered thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. Any storms that develop will be able to tap into wind fields adequate for severe thunderstorm organization.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but hail and an isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out either.
The threat currently looks highest east of Keuka Lake, but this is still subject to change. The overall severe threat will depend on the late morning-early afternoon heating. Be sure to check back tomorrow for updates.
Substantially Quieter Weather
After Wednesday’s thunderstorms, a cold front will slip through early Thursday. One or two showers may accompany the front early in the morning. The rest of Thursday should be a mix of sun and clouds with a west-northwesterly breeze.
Temperatures Thursday should reach the mid 70s, but Friday may not quite get to 70 degrees as cool air continues to settle into the region.
Friday will have some sunshine, but low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will spread some thin cloud cover in to filter the intensity of the sunshine.
The weekend looks sunny and dry with temperatures climbing back into the 70s. Look for highs Saturday in the low 70s while Sunday pushes into the mid and upper 70s.
The weather becomes less certain as we head into next week. There is a chance it stays mostly dry, but it remains to be seen what small weather systems may trigger pop up showers and storms.
Temperatures should mostly be in the 70s, though 80s will become more possible as the week goes on.
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