High Pressure Helps Deflect Dorian
A large area of high pressure has built into the Finger Lakes and will bring clear and quiet weather for Thursday.
We are on the eastern periphery of this high, which extends through the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Aloft, this high pressure is accompanied by a slight dip in the jet stream which tracks from the northern Plains, through the Great Lakes, then kinks back north slightly into New England.
Not only will this pattern result in some cool but pleasant weather for the Finger Lakes, it will also be a major influence in keeping Hurricane Dorian from moving far inland over the Mid-Atlantic or even further north.
Dorian will creep north towards the South Carolina coast this morning before starting to turn a bit east this afternoon. As the jet stream continues to sink south, it will pick Dorian up and accelerate it off to the northeast.
Damaging winds, flash floods, and tornadoes are likely across coastal South and North Carolina. The large eye of Dorian may cross over the Outer Banks of North Carolina Friday morning.
Meanwhile, locally in the Finger Lakes, today should be a sun filled day as high pressure strengthens. High temperatures will peak in the mid and upper 70s today with a gentle northerly breeze. Many places will drop into the 40s tonight with even the warmest places only staying near 50 degrees.
Sunshine will stick with the region to start on Friday. The outer fringes of the clouds associated with Dorian will probably stay southeast of the Finger Lakes, but a disturbance caught in the jet stream will approach late in the afternoon with some clouds of its own.
A few showers may pop up during the afternoon as this disturbance swings through. High temperatures should reach the upper 60s and low 70s.
By Saturday morning, Dorian should be out over the Atlantic Ocean, well east of the Mid-Atlantic and well south of New England. Rain and wind may just clip coastal New England. Tropical Storm Watches have now been issued for far eastern Massachusetts.
Another disturbance will move along the jet stream to our north on Saturday and will interact with Dorian. These interactions can be tricky for the computer models to handle.
However, most of the rain expected from this interaction will stay well to our north. Still, a few scattered showers will again be possible.
One or two isolated showers may linger into Sunday as a frontal boundary develops to our south over Pennsylvania. For the most part though, Sunday looks dry, albeit a bit on the cloudy side.
High temperatures Saturday will be in the mid and upper 60s, while Sunday struggles into the low 60s.
Widespread 40s are expected Sunday night and Monday night, but sunshine during the daytime hours will push highs into the mid and upper 60s on Monday and towards the low 70s on Tuesday.
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