Temperatures warm quickly, fall just as fast this week

finger lakes weather forecast monday september 30 2019 clouds rain warm tuesday cold front
Clouds and an east wind will keep temperatures down today, but Tuesday will be much warmer. A significant cool down will start Wednesday and last deep into October at the very least. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Warming Up

An area of low pressure over the middle of the nation will push warm air into the Finger Lakes for Tuesday. Before it arrives, though, Monday will be rather cloudy and cooler.

An area of high pressure north of New England will keep our surface winds today from the east and southeast. These winds will lock in cooler air at the surface, even as southwest winds aloft bring in warmer air above the surface.

As the warmer air aloft moves in, clouds and a few showers are likely through today. The rain that falls should be light and many areas will spend most or all of today dry.

Temperatures will struggle to rise under the influence of the easterly winds. The coolest temperatures will be south of Syracuse and east of Cayuga Lake, where low 60s at most are expected. Temperatures will range through the 60s for the rest of the region. A few places west of I-390 from Rochester to Dansville could approach 70 degrees.

Overnight temperatures will not drop much and should even rise a few degrees before the sun rises as the warmer air finally moves in at the surface. It should be a quick rise Tuesday morning once the sun is up, with highs in the afternoon above 80 for most areas.

Monday night and Tuesday will continue to have a few scattered showers, and maybe a thunderstorm. Much of the time it will also be cloudy, but a few breaks of sun look possible on Tuesday.

Cooling Down

The warm up will be very short lived, however. By Wednesday morning, a strong cold front will drop south through the Finger Lakes. Rain and maybe some thunder are likely Tuesday night with showers lingering well into Wednesday.

This front will have a sharp drop off in temperature, which will only be enhanced by the clouds and showers Wednesday. Temperatures early Wednesday will be between 65-70 degrees, but the afternoon will drop into the 50s.

The front will stall out over Pennsylvania, then drift back north as low pressure moves into Western New York on Thursday. This should bring more rain, some of which could be heavy.

If the front makes it far enough north, temperatures could sneak back into the upper 60s for a time Thursday.

Gusty winds are also expected Thursday and especially Thursday night. These winds will be from the south during the day Thursday, but will turn to the west Thursday evening and to the north by Friday morning.

Friday will be a raw, cold day with temperatures peaking early in the morning in the upper 50s. By the afternoon, most areas should be near or just above 50 degrees.

Saturday morning will likely be the coldest morning so far this year. Widespread 30s may be possible with only areas near the lakes staying above 40 degrees. If this comes to pass, numerous frost advisories will probably be needed.

The rest of Saturday looks dry with ample sunshine for the first time all week. Temperatures will top out in the upper 50s. Sunday looks cloudier with a few scattered showers and temperatures pushing back into the 60s.

It appears as though this will be our new normal as we head deeper into October. Days above 65 degrees will be our warmer days while cool days will settle in the 50s. Clear skies on any given night could send temperatures dropping into the low 40s and 30s.

There will of course be plenty of day-to-day variation, but it looks as though the days of consistent 70s, let alone 80s, will be gone.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.