Tricky Travel Expected
Another strong push of cold air will move into the Finger Lakes on Monday. Low pressure will develop along the cold front, enhancing the likelihood of meaningful winter weather late Monday and early Tuesday.
This weather system will bring a variety of conditions to the Finger Lakes region. Some areas will see a moderate accumulation of snow, while others see some ice and snow. Location will have a large impact on the expected conditions.
The set up for this system is already underway with a cold front poised just northwest of the region over southern Ontario. After a pleasant enough day today, this front will sag south tonight and early Monday, stalling out over northern Pennsylvania.
An area of low pressure will then develop along the front and intensify as it moves just southeast of the Finger Lakes Monday night. Far to the northwest of the low, a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely. Closer to the low, however, precipitation will turn to an icy mix before ending as snow.
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Thank you for your continued support and generosity. Now, back to this special Sunday update…
Light rain and snow showers will move in overnight and linger into Monday morning. These should be very minor with few impacts. Precipitation will begin to intensify during the latter half of the afternoon and should become heavier during the evening and overnight.
The precipitation will be dwindling Tuesday morning. By this time, the entire area will be seeing snow. Snow showers will continue to diminish Tuesday before transitioning to scattered lake effect Tuesday night.
The worst weather can be expected after sunset Monday through about sunrise Tuesday.
Snow accumulations will be greatest along the shore of Lake Ontario and from Rochester southwestward. Maximum amounts look to be in the 6-9 inch range.
The greatest chance for icy conditions will be through the Southern Tier and into Central New York, including Elmira, Ithaca, and Cortland. Here, a glaze of ice and a couple inches of snow will be possible.
Significant uncertainty remains through the center of the Finger Lakes. A slight shift in the track or strength of the low pressure system could mean more snow or more ice.
Since this uncertainty exists and given that the model solutions are still evolving, I’ve decided to put off my full snow report until Monday morning.
The key takeaways at this point is to expect meaningful wintry weather Monday night which will have lingering impacts into Tuesday. The impacts from this system will be on par with what we typically see numerous times in a normal winter.
Be sure to check back tomorrow morning between 7-8 AM for a full report.
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