Sunday updates on wintry weather for Monday into Tuesday

finger lakes weather forecast sunday november 10 2019 special report monday november 11 2019 tuesday november 12 2019
A cold front will move through the Finger Lakes tonight, setting the region up for areas of snow and ice late Monday into early Tuesday. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Tricky Travel Expected

Another strong push of cold air will move into the Finger Lakes on Monday. Low pressure will develop along the cold front, enhancing the likelihood of meaningful winter weather late Monday and early Tuesday.

This weather system will bring a variety of conditions to the Finger Lakes region. Some areas will see a moderate accumulation of snow, while others see some ice and snow. Location will have a large impact on the expected conditions.

The set up for this system is already underway with a cold front poised just northwest of the region over southern Ontario. After a pleasant enough day today, this front will sag south tonight and early Monday, stalling out over northern Pennsylvania.

An area of low pressure will then develop along the front and intensify as it moves just southeast of the Finger Lakes Monday night. Far to the northwest of the low, a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely. Closer to the low, however, precipitation will turn to an icy mix before ending as snow.

Important Note

I love Finger Lakes Weather.

Since I began the Finger Lakes Weather Facebook page in 2012 and blog in 2014, I have continued to grow my services and my style has evolved. For the last 6-12 months, my focus has become more centered on truly serving my users and getting them the information they will find most useful.

Outside of Finger Lakes Weather, there is no other weather source focused solely on the Finger Lakes. No other weather providers can come close to the level of personaliztion and accessibility that I provide. I read every comment, quickly respond to every private message and email, and continue to pioneer new ways to present weather information.

Based on what people tell me all the time, chances are high that you love Finger Lakes Weather, too.

Everything I do, I do on my own. I do not use data feeds from other weather sources to populate my forecasts, and I certainly don’t display model data and present it as an original forecast or so-called “futurecast”. You already know I don’t hype and I patiently wait until I have a clear idea before posting to avoid confusion.

Last Spring, I nearly had to end all of this due to a financial change in my largest client that caused them to drop my services. I held a Fund Drive to make up the significant gap in income. Many people were very generous, but I did not reach my fund raising goals. Just enough money was raised that I have been able to continue working on FLX Weather part time while juggling many other responsibilities.

Over the last couple of months, however, I have lost numerous donors that signed on in the spring. Situations change and people are unable to continue their support — I completely understand that and greatly appreciate that those who were in delicate situations to begin with stretched themselves to support Finger Lakes Weather, and all who have donated to Finger Lakes Weather, some month in and month out for five years straight years now.

However, after not meeting my Fund Drive goals to begin with, these recent losses only make the situation more tenuous. New donors must step up if I am to continue providing these unique services, maintaining this website, and creating new ways to serve your needs.

At the bottom of this page is a monthly donation form. Please, if you are able to make a monthly donation, I urge you to do so. Many people rely heavily on Finger Lakes Weather, and I in turn rely heavily on you.

Thank you for your continued support and generosity. Now, back to this special Sunday update…

Light rain and snow showers will move in overnight and linger into Monday morning. These should be very minor with few impacts. Precipitation will begin to intensify during the latter half of the afternoon and should become heavier during the evening and overnight.

The precipitation will be dwindling Tuesday morning. By this time, the entire area will be seeing snow. Snow showers will continue to diminish Tuesday before transitioning to scattered lake effect Tuesday night.

The worst weather can be expected after sunset Monday through about sunrise Tuesday.

Snow accumulations will be greatest along the shore of Lake Ontario and from Rochester southwestward. Maximum amounts look to be in the 6-9 inch range.

The greatest chance for icy conditions will be through the Southern Tier and into Central New York, including Elmira, Ithaca, and Cortland. Here, a glaze of ice and a couple inches of snow will be possible.

Significant uncertainty remains through the center of the Finger Lakes. A slight shift in the track or strength of the low pressure system could mean more snow or more ice.

Since this uncertainty exists and given that the model solutions are still evolving, I’ve decided to put off my full snow report until Monday morning.

The key takeaways at this point is to expect meaningful wintry weather Monday night which will have lingering impacts into Tuesday. The impacts from this system will be on par with what we typically see numerous times in a normal winter.

Be sure to check back tomorrow morning between 7-8 AM for a full report.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

5 Responses

  1. Marie Sanderson

    Hi Drew,
    We just increased our monthly giving. There wasn’t a way to “change your monthly amount” so I am hoping that you can simply substitute the new amount, rather than adding it to the old amount.

    We appreciate your fine work and want it to continue!

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      I’ll be sure to take care of that for you!

  2. Louise Bement

    I would donate if I knew how. I am older and write checks and mail them. So if you want my donation let me know where I can send a check.

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      Thank you Louise! You can do a check to Finger Lakes Weather PO Box 326 Groton NY 13073

  3. Sharon

    Thank you for the update today, Drew! Enjoy the rest of your Sunday with your family!