The first significant winter weather event of the season will unfold across the Finger Lakes late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday with significant snow accumulations for northern and western areas with a mix of snow and ice further south and east.
A cold front moved through Sunday night and is stalled out from New England, through the Ohio Valley, into the Southern Plains. Low pressure will move along this front and strengthen, bringing moderate to heavy precipitation to the Finger Lakes, especially Monday night.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS are in effect for the following counties (listed alphabetically): Allegany, Cayuga, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Onondaga, Ontario, Seneca, Yates, Wayne, Wyoming
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for the following counties (listed alphabetically): Chemung, Cortland, Schuyler, Steuben, Tioga, Tompkins
Light snow, maybe mixing with some rain, is already scattered across northwestern portions of the region. Precipitation will gradually expand and intensify this afternoon as snow. Along the southern edge of the precipitation, ice will develop after 5 PM. All precipitation should turn to snow by midnight. Steady snow will quickly end between 7-9 AM Tuesday. Scattered snow showers will linger south-southeast of Lake Ontario into Tuesday afternoon.
The highest snow totals of near or just over a foot will be found west of I-390 and along the shore of Lake Ontario.
The I-90 corridor will generally see 8-12 inches.
The central regions of the Finger Lakes will see 4-8 inches, with most places on the high side of that range.
Snow amounts will diminish quickly as one goes further south, with 2-4 inches and a glaze of ice for the southern Finger Lakes and even less to the east of Elmira.
Temperatures range from the low 30s in the north and west to the mid 30s in the south and east Monday morning. These temperatures should remain steady throughout the day before slowly dropping after sunset.
By midnight, widespread mid and upper 20s are expected. By dawn Tuesday, temperatures will range from near 20 degrees to the mid 20s. High temperatures Tuesday will only be a few degrees higher, ranging through the 20s.
Only minor travel impacts are expected through the mid-afternoon, mostly north and west of Geneva. Travel conditions should deteriorate quickly after sunset as snow and ice intensify and temperatures fall below freezing.
Significant travel hazards are expected on all roads Monday evening into early Tuesday morning, including the morning commute. Road conditions will gradually improve Tuesday morning, but many rural and secondary roads will remain slick and sloppy into the early afternoon.
Even areas that do not see high snow accumulations will have slick and hazardous roads due to freezing rain Monday evening and slush turning to ice overnight Monday into early Tuesday.
Winds will gust over 20 mph at times, but are not expected to be a significant hazard. The glaze of ice will make surfaces slick, but should not contribute to downed branches or power outages.
MEDIUM- With a tight gradient in snow amounts expected, the forecast is very sensitive to fluctuations in the track and strength of the low pressure. Most areas should end up within or near their expected snow ranges, but several areas may see more or less snow depending on the presence or lack of ice. Normal variations in snow amounts should always be expected.
FUTURE SNOW OUTLOOK
Scattered lake effect flurries are expected into Tuesday night with little to no accumulation.
No precipitation, rain or snow, is expected during the second half of the week.
Very light snow may be possible this weekend.
- Monday Late Afternoon Update (format TBD, time TBD)
- Regular Tuesday AM Blog Post- (Between 7-8 AM)
- Get the forecast for your Zip Code
- Finger Lakes Weather Radar
- Ask Meteorologist Drew Montreuil a question
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