Snow Report: Monday, November 11, 2019

finger lakes weather snow report monday november 11 2019

The first significant winter weather event of the season will unfold across the Finger Lakes late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday with significant snow accumulations for northern and western areas with a mix of snow and ice further south and east.

WHAT

A cold front moved through Sunday night and is stalled out from New England, through the Ohio Valley, into the Southern Plains. Low pressure will move along this front and strengthen, bringing moderate to heavy precipitation to the Finger Lakes, especially Monday night.

ALERTS ACTIVE

WINTER STORM WARNINGS are in effect for the following counties (listed alphabetically): Allegany, Cayuga, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Onondaga, Ontario, Seneca, Yates, Wayne, Wyoming

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for the following counties (listed alphabetically): Chemung, Cortland, Schuyler, Steuben, Tioga, Tompkins

WHEN

Light snow, maybe mixing with some rain, is already scattered across northwestern portions of the region. Precipitation will gradually expand and intensify this afternoon as snow. Along the southern edge of the precipitation, ice will develop after 5 PM. All precipitation should turn to snow by midnight. Steady snow will quickly end between 7-9 AM Tuesday. Scattered snow showers will linger south-southeast of Lake Ontario into Tuesday afternoon.

finger lakes weather snow map monday november 11 2019
The highest snow totals are expected in the northwestern portions of the area and along the shore of Lake Ontario. Much lighter amounts are expected to the south and east where freezing rain and sleet will mix in this evening. Click the map to enlarge.

HOW MUCH

The highest snow totals of near or just over a foot will be found west of I-390 and along the shore of Lake Ontario.

The I-90 corridor will generally see 8-12 inches.

The central regions of the Finger Lakes will see 4-8 inches, with most places on the high side of that range.

Snow amounts will diminish quickly as one goes further south, with 2-4 inches and a glaze of ice for the southern Finger Lakes and even less to the east of Elmira.

TEMPERATURES

Temperatures range from the low 30s in the north and west to the mid 30s in the south and east Monday morning. These temperatures should remain steady throughout the day before slowly dropping after sunset.
By midnight, widespread mid and upper 20s are expected. By dawn Tuesday, temperatures will range from near 20 degrees to the mid 20s. High temperatures Tuesday will only be a few degrees higher, ranging through the 20s.

TRAVEL IMPACTS

Only minor travel impacts are expected through the mid-afternoon, mostly north and west of Geneva. Travel conditions should deteriorate quickly after sunset as snow and ice intensify and temperatures fall below freezing.
Significant travel hazards are expected on all roads Monday evening into early Tuesday morning, including the morning commute. Road conditions will gradually improve Tuesday morning, but many rural and secondary roads will remain slick and sloppy into the early afternoon.

Even areas that do not see high snow accumulations will have slick and hazardous roads due to freezing rain Monday evening and slush turning to ice overnight Monday into early Tuesday.

OTHER IMPACTS

Winds will gust over 20 mph at times, but are not expected to be a significant hazard. The glaze of ice will make surfaces slick, but should not contribute to downed branches or power outages.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE

MEDIUM- With a tight gradient in snow amounts expected, the forecast is very sensitive to fluctuations in the track and strength of the low pressure. Most areas should end up within or near their expected snow ranges, but several areas may see more or less snow depending on the presence or lack of ice. Normal variations in snow amounts should always be expected.

FUTURE SNOW OUTLOOK

Scattered lake effect flurries are expected into Tuesday night with little to no accumulation.

No precipitation, rain or snow, is expected during the second half of the week.

Very light snow may be possible this weekend.

FUTURE UPDATES

  • Monday Late Afternoon Update (format TBD, time TBD)
  • Regular Tuesday AM Blog Post- (Between 7-8 AM)

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

6 Responses

  1. Gita Devi
    |

    no snow yet in Reading Center.

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      Thanks Gita! Still too early to expect much but western NY is going downhill fast now.

  2. Marie-Ann
    |

    Thanks again Drew. Not seeing much snow in Geneva so far…

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      Yup it is early still. Things should ramp up over the next few hours. Worst remains overnight.

  3. Kristin L DiPronio
    |

    Thank you so very much for your work, and sharing your expertise with us… your forecasts are so clear, easy to understand, and the graphics are wonderful… you are definitely the go-to guy, and i so appreciate you 🙂

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      Thanks for the feedback, Kristin! I am very glad to do this! 🙂