The days leading up to Thanksgiving will be mild this year before a midweek weather system flips our pattern to cold.
Monday will have clouds, some breaks of sun, and perhaps a stray morning shower as the warmer air starts to push in.
The showers will be most likely over far western portions of the Finger Lakes as rain over Western New York moves east. The rain should dissipate as it tracks into the Finger Lakes with most areas staying dry.
Temperatures are starting in the low 40s over the northern Finger Lakes with mid and upper 30s to the south. Southwest winds will push temperatures into the mid and upper 40s. The warmest areas will be roughly from Penn Yan north and west.
Skies tonight will be partly cloudy to mostly clear, allowing temperatures to slip back into the upper 30s. Winds will stay out of the southwest.
Tuesday should have more sun than Monday, though there will still be at least some thin cloud cover to filter the sunshine.
Nonetheless, warm air will continue to move in with highs in the low and mid 50s.
Winds will turn calm Tuesday night, sending temperatures back to the upper 30s. Southeast winds will pick up for Wednesday. Temperatures will be well into the mid 50s along the I-90 corridor, while the Southern Tier hovers around 50 degrees.
Rain and Wind Arrive
Wednesday morning should be dry and a little sun may even be possible. By the afternoon, however, rain will move in from west to east. This rain will be more showery than steady with heavier precipitation staying to our north.
A cold front will move through Wednesday evening, shifting the winds to the west. As the front passes, the winds will increase. Most areas will gust between 25-35 mph Wednesday night and 30-40 mph on Thanksgiving Day.
The wind shift will send temperatures into the upper 30s and low 40s for most of the nighttime hours. Some of the rain showers will mix with snow over higher elevations.
A secondary front will move through on Thursday morning. Winds will turn more northerly, and temperatures will lose more ground. Most of Thanksgiving Day will be spent in the low and mid 30s with 20s becoming widespread overnight.
Morning snow showers Thursday will end during the afternoon with little to no accumulation. Winds will also diminish Thursday afternoon and especially during the evening and overnight.
Black Friday will be the start of a new weather pattern characterized by chilly, but not freezing temperatures and generally quiet weather conditions.
Morning lows Friday will range through the 20s with afternoon highs just getting above 30 degrees.
Winds will be from the north, but the atmosphere will be too dry for anything more than a few stray lake effect clouds.
During the weekend, a weather system will approach from the southwest. The timing of this system is still uncertain. All modes of precipitation- rain, snow, and ice, will be possible in light amounts.
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