Quiet before weekend weather system

finger lakes weather forecast thursday december 12 2019 sun clouds warming trend
Thursday will have sunshine mixing with thin clouds. Thicker clouds, and warmer temperatures, will move in for Friday ahead of a weekend weather system. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Dry with Some Sun

Clear skies overnight have the Finger Lakes off to a chilly start today.

Much of the region ranges between the upper single digits and mid teens. Those temperatures will rise steadily as the morning goes on thanks to ample sunshine.

The sunshine will compete with some thin clouds, especially this afternoon. These clouds should not block the sun completely but may filter it at times.

With high pressure setting up to our southeast, winds will be from the south. However, they will be very light and will not help our temperatures warm much during the daytime hours. Afternoon highs will therefore top out in the low 30s.

The wind will increase tonight, and a deck of thin overcast will persist. These two factors will prevent temperatures from falling much. After an initial dip into the upper 20s early this evening, temperatures will hold steady or even rise back into the low 30s during the night.

Higher elevations will see wind gusts over 30 mph tonight.

Friday will be cloudier than today but just as dry and tranquil. South winds will continue to be blustery, especially over higher elevations.

Temperatures will rise on the strength of the wind with low and mid 40s across the lower elevations to the north and upper 30s across the southern areas.

A few rain showers may start to arrive Friday evening.

Weekend Weather System

Low pressure will track north toward the region on Saturday, likely passing directly over Central New York Saturday afternoon.

With this path, temperatures will remain plenty warm enough for rain through Saturday afternoon. After an initial push of rain early in the morning, the precipitation may taper off for a time as the low moves in.

As the low begins to pull away to the northeast, precipitation on the backside of the low will sweep back in from the west for Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures Saturday will ultimately depend on the exact path of the low. Areas near and east of the center of low pressure will see temperatures in the mid and upper 40s. To the west, upper 30s and low 40s are more likely.

Winds during the day Saturday will be light, but will increase behind the low. West winds will also bring in cooler air, and rain should turn to snow by Saturday evening. Several hours of steady moderate snow are likely Saturday evening and Saturday night. Several inches of snow may be possible, especially over higher elevations.

Temperatures are only expected to drop to near or just above freezing Saturday night. This should keep roads easily treatable. Sloppy conditions should be expected overnight, but many main roads will remain in decent shape.

Precipitation will taper off early Sunday morning and transition to lake effect. With west-northwest winds, most of the lake effect should stay out of the Finger Lakes. Temperatures will hold in the low and mid 30s before dropping into the 20s Sunday night.

Some lake effect snow from Lake Ontario may sink south Monday morning before it dissipates.

The next system will move in from the south Monday night into Tuesday, but the path of the system will determine how much of what type of precipitation we see.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.