Shot of snow and wind as low pressure passes by

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday february 18 2020 snow rain wind fog low pressure
Morning snow will taper off and turn to rain for most of the Finger Lakes before noon. Temperatures will rise into the 40s this afternoon, but lake snows are in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Changing Weather Conditions

An area of low pressure to our west over Michigan has push snow and wind into the area this morning.

As of 7 AM, snow will still widespread across the region with pockets of moderate to heavy snowfall. Some roads are becoming snowy, resulting in slight travel delays this morning.

The snow is already turning to rain over western New York. Over the next several hours, the snow will also turn to rain across the Finger Lakes as it ends. Higher elevations will hold on to the snow longer than nearby lower elevations and thus have the best chance at seeing a couple inches accumulate.

Temperatures will continue to rise and should top out in the low and mid 40s for most of the region. The Rochester area could sneak into the upper 40s.

With the warm, moist air overtop the cold snow, areas of fog will become possible this afternoon and early evening. However, gusty winds may prevent the fog from becoming too established.

Those winds will continue to gust to around 40 mph from the south this morning before decreasing in speed this afternoon. Late in the day, winds will turn to the southwest, then west.

Temperatures will be in the low and mid 20s by Wednesday morning and will only gain a couple degrees over the course of the day.

Scattered lake effect flurries and a few brief squalls will be possible on Wednesday, especially during the first half of the day. The lake effect will constantly be on the move, so be ready for changing conditions. Accumulations should be minimal though due to the transient nature of the snow bands.

Most of the lake effect will lift north Wednesday night only to come back south Thursday morning. There will be a better chance for some areas to see a few inches early Thursday with a better developed, slower moving band. The morning commute along and north of I-90 may be impacted slightly.

High temperatures on Thursday will be around 20 degrees. The lake effect will continue south during the midday and afternoon hours before it weakens and dissipate. Some new activity southeast of Lake Ontario will be possible into Thursday night.

finger lakes weather 7 day forecast tuesday february 18 2020
Click to enlarge.

Quiet and Warming for the Weekend

High pressure will take over our weather from there, with a bright, sunny day expected on Friday.

Temperatures will start cold Friday with lows in the single digits for areas not seeing any lingering lake effect Thursday night. High temperatures will bounce back into the upper 20s with a few areas reaching 30 degrees.

Saturday will also be sunny from nearly start to finish with just a few thin clouds sneaking in late. Sunday will see more of those thin clouds before the day ends with some thicker cloud cover.

Morning temperatures will remain cold thanks to clear or mostly clear skies. Saturday morning’s lows will be in the teens and single digits. Sunday morning will be similar but will be a couple degrees warmer.

Afternoon highs will bounce back with Saturday topping out near 40 degrees while Sunday pushes into the mid 40s.

Temperatures should remain mild for the first half of next week. Cooler air will then return later in the week.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.