Heaviest Rains Stay East
Tropical Storm Isaias is inland over North Carolina this morning and will track north into New Jersey and New England later today.
Rain showers ahead of Isaias developed overnight and will continue for much of the day for the eastern half of the region.
The big question remains how far west will steadier, heavier rain spin? Weather models are basically unchanged with a sharp gradient in expected rain amounts over the eastern Finger Lakes into Central New York.
The best chance for an inch or more of rain will be from roughly Syracuse to Ithaca to Elmira and points east. Two-inch plus rain amounts may clip southeastern Tioga and Cortland counties. Meanwhile, areas west of Cayuga Lake and Corning are unlikely to see more than a half-inch.
In the end, a mere 50 miles or so will separate rain amounts under a half-inch and approaching three inches. Any slight wobble in the track of Isaias will result in large fluctuations in the rain amounts. As long as there is no significant wobble westward, flooding will not be a major concern in our region.
Another question will be the development of scattered thundery downpours on the western periphery of the steadier rain, which could bring localized amounts over a half-inch to the western half of the Finger Lakes.
The widespread rain should pull out of the region between 3-6 PM, though some scattered thundery downpours will linger.
Wind will not be a concern from Isaias in our region. The strong winds associated with the tropical storm will stay on the east side of the storm along the Eastern Seaboard.
Temperatures today will be in the low 70s for areas that see steady rain and mid 70s further west.
Showers will gradually become less common overnight, though a brief spit of rain Wednesday morning cannot be ruled out. For the most part, Wednesday will just be a mix of sun and clouds.
High temperatures Wednesday will push into the low and mid 70s. A few upper 70s will also be possible in the Southern Tier between Corning and Binghamton.
Skies will clear Wednesday night and temperatures will turn cool. Lows Thursday morning should be in the 50s for the entire Finger Lakes region with low 50s possible in the higher elevations of the western Southern Tier.
Temperatures will bounce back into the mid and upper 70s Thursday afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
Some moisture will push northward on Friday but will most likely stay along or south of the NY-PA State Line. Still, keep the chance for a shower in mind if you have outdoor plans. Highs on Friday should be around 80 degrees.
Saturday will have a slightly higher chance for a shower, again mostly for southern portions of the region. We will have to see how the forecast changes over the coming days. Sunday looks mostly dry. Temperatures both days should be in the 80s.