Little day-to-day change in our weather

finger lakes weather forecast thursday august 13 2020 sun clouds mild
After some areas of morning cloudiness, today will turn sunny and similar to yesterday’s weather. Friday and Saturday will follow suit. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

High Pressure in Control

A large high pressure system north of the Great Lakes will continue to control our weather for a couple more days.

On the southern fringes of this high, a small disturbance is riding along what remains of a stalled out frontal boundary. A few areas of clouds are skirting through the Finger Lakes this morning as a result.

Skies will gradually trend sunnier as this system carries on and no rain will fall locally. Look for a mix of sunshine and fair-weather clouds through the afternoon.

Light north and northeast winds will keep humidity levels low today. Temperatures will be similar to or a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. Most areas should see the mid 80s for highs.

Mostly clear skies will develop for tonight, with temperatures falling into the low and mid 60s.

Friday will mimic today, with a few early clouds, plenty of sunshine the rest of the day, low humidity, light north winds, and highs in the low and mid 80s.

Saturday will start on the sunny side with the typical increase in fair-weather clouds during the late morning and afternoon. Late in the day, some thicker clouds will start to stream in from the southwest, signaling more active weather on the way.

Highs Saturday should again be in the low and mid 80s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday august 13 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Uncertain and Unsettled

Sunday continues to be a day of mystery, though the models are finally starting to at least look like they are in the same ballpark.

A weather system should approach the region, but mostly pass to the south on Sunday afternoon. Some scattered showers cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures on the European have trended downward, especially on the ensembles, and it looks increasingly unlikely that our region will eclipse 85 degrees. I’ve set the forecast a bit lower than what the model is showing even now, but still believe other, colder models are incorrect as well.

A cold front is still expected to come through the region later Monday with a round of showers and thunderstorms. The timing of the front will partially determine the thunderstorm threat and remains uncertain at this time.

Between the systems Sunday and Monday, there is some potential for heavy rain, but there is also a chance that most of the precipitation falls outside of our region. This will need to be monitored closely over the next couple days.

Regardless of how those two days unfold, the middle of next week looks cooler with highs in the 70s and lows well into the 50s.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.