Front Retreats, then Advances Again
The front that brought our severe weather event yesterday has settled to our south over Pennsylvania.
Another wave of energy is moving along the front with widespread showers and thunderstorms stretching from Michigan, across Lake Erie, and into Pennsylvania.
This rain should stay to our south this morning, only clipping a few areas near the state line in Allegany and western Steuben county.
Clouds on the fringe of this rain, in addition to plentiful low morning clouds in the wake of last night’s rain, will keep the sun scarce this morning.
The best chance for some meaningful breaks of sun will be early this afternoon. During this time, temperatures should peak in the upper 70s and low 80s.
Cloud will thicken again later in the afternoon as another wave moves along the front. This time, the front will start to lift north. Scattered showers will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening, especially west and south of a rough Rochester-Penn Yan-Ithaca line.
Winds will spend most of the day gently from the northwest but will swing around to the south tonight as the front lifts north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region and continue into Saturday morning.
The front will push back through one final time as a cold front during the early and mid afternoon hours on Saturday. Temperatures ahead of the front will depend on how widespread the rain is and whether any sun can poke out. Most areas will again be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
As the front moves through, a thin line of storms may develop. This could bring some gusty winds to areas east of Seneca Lake, but any storms that develop should be much weaker than yesterday.
Saturday will end with a little sun mixing in with the clouds and winds turning back to the northwest.
Looking Beyond Saturday
A cool air mass will settle in behind the front Saturday night into Sunday. By Sunday morning, temperatures just a mile above the surface will be into the 40s.
This will trigger a response from Lake Ontario in the form of clouds and showers. This is typically the time of year we see the first lake effect rain showers, so this is very normal.
The clouds and showers will increase Saturday night, keeping temperatures near 60 degrees. Showers will be scattered and brief. These showers will linger into Sunday morning before dissipating before noon.
Breezy northwest winds at 10-15 mph and gusts near 30 mph will continue into Sunday afternoon as some sun starts to return. These winds will hold highs mostly in the mid and upper 60s.
High pressure will move in overhead Sunday night with calm winds and clearing skies. This will lead to Monday morning temperatures between 45-55 degrees.
Winds will go back to the southeast on Monday as the high moves east. Temperatures will return to the 70s, though only a few areas will see 75 degrees. Monday will be a quiet, sunny day.
The next chance for rain comes on Tuesday as a low pressure system tracks northeast through the Mid-Atlantic and into New England. Our region will be on the edge of this, and how much rain we see will depend greatly on the track of the low.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible Wednesday and Thursday as a couple other systems also track through the region.
Temperatures most of next week should remain in the 70s, though a jump into the low 80s here and there will also be possible.
Overall, the weather pattern over the next two weeks is looking like the start of the transition out of summer, with no big surges of heat and several weather systems possible.
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