Fall continues its push this week

finger lakes weather forecast monday september 14 2020 sun clouds cold front wind wildfire smoke
Cold fronts this morning and on Thursday will keep us stepping away from Summer and into Fall. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Chilly High Pressure

Looking at the weather this week as a whole, there is little doubt summer is being left behind and fall is arriving.

After yesterday’s rainy cold front, a second, subtle front will drop south through the Finger Lakes this morning. This front will be accompanied by clouds and a few scattered showers. Any rain that falls will be light and brief.

Winds will become northerly behind this front with speeds of 10 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph. This will hold temperatures to the low and perhaps mid 60s this afternoon across our region.

Dry air will start to work in behind the front, leading to a gradual increase in sunshine. By the end of the afternoon, if not sooner, skies will be clear.

High pressure will slide in tonight with calm winds in addition to the clear skies. The coldest night so far this season will result, with Tuesday morning lows ranging throughout the 40s. I would not be surprised to see a few 30s in colder pockets as well. A Frost Advisory is even in place for Allegany County.

Tuesday and Wednesday both look sunny and dry. The sunshine will probably have a hazy or milky appearance though as smoke from the western wildfires moves overhead, high in the atmosphere. This is not unheard of and we typically see smokey skies a few times a year.

Since the smoke will be high in the atmosphere, there should be no impact on our surface air quality or visibility, which is a serious concern for many areas out west. The sunrises and sunsets may be especially vibrant and colorful, though.

With the high pressure passing to our east, temperatures will start to rebound with highs near 70 on Tuesday and near 80 on Wednesday.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday september 14 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Even Cooler Air Coming

The next cold front will roll into the region on Thursday. Expect showers at some point during the day. Unfortunately, the rain amounts look low and some areas may not see any rain.

Temperatures on Thursday will depend on the timing of the front but will probably stick in the 60s.

Widespread 40s are likely Thursday night, leading into a chilly Friday. With gusty winds, highs may fail to even reach 60 degrees.

Saturday morning will be colder yet, with 30s in the Southern Tier and Central New York with low and mid 40s elsewhere. Despite sunny skies, highs Saturday are likely to stick in the 50s.

The coldest air will settle in for Sunday morning. Many areas will fall into the 30s and a few pockets of frost may even be possible. Areas near the lakes will probably stay just above 40 degrees.

Given that this is still several days away, we could see temperatures on the models moderate warmer, but there is above-average confidence showing, so there is little doubt that furnaces will be flicking on and fall will be in the air.

Temperatures will start a steady climb out of the autumnal chill starting on Sunday with highs pushing back into the 60s. By next Tuesday, we may be back into the 70s.

The next chance for rain will not come until a front during the latter half of next week, followed by another shot of cool air.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

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