Temperatures bounce around this week

finger lakes weather forecast monday october 5 2020 temperatures cold front high pressure rain clouds sunny
Temperatures will go on two warming trends this week with a few chilly days in between. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Mid-Week Front

Our week is starting off with the departure of one weather system and the arrival of high pressure.

There are plenty of clouds and a few lingering showers across the region this morning as last night’s system slowly pulls away.

The clouds will likely stick with us most of the day, though the chances for rain will continue to decline. Some late day sunshine is not out of the question, though.

A light northwest wind will team up with the clouds to keep temperatures cool again today. Look for highs mostly in the upper 50s, though a few places should be able to reach 60 degrees.

Skies will transition from partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight. A developing south wind will help keep temperatures from getting too cold, though. Most areas should stay near or above 40 with just a few pockets of upper 30s.

Tomorrow will be a very pleasant day with sunshine and southwest winds pushing temperatures into the mid 60s. The wind will be a bit blustery though, with speeds near 10 mph and gusts as high as 25 mph.

A front will then approach the region on Wednesday. South winds will continue ahead of the front, keeping Tuesday night’s temperatures mostly in the 50s. The front should move through earlier rather than later, so Wednesday’s temperatures will be halted before they can climb much. Look for morning highs around 60, followed by temperatures ranging between 55-60 throughout the afternoon.

As the front moves through, showers and a couple rumbles of thunder will be possible. Winds will turn westerly and increase as well with gusts of 40-45 mph immediately following the front and 25-35 mph thereafter.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday october 5 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Down, Up, Down

Thursday will be a cool, dreary day behind the front. Winds will turn to the northwest and continue to gust to 30 mph.

The cool winds coming over Lake Ontario will give rise to plenty of lake effect clouds and scattered rain showers. Most areas will see highs in the mid 50s.

Skies will clear out Thursday night as high pressure moves overhead. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are likely as temperatures fall well into the 30s.

The high moves east on Friday and temperatures will rapidly warm on the backs of sunshine and south winds. Temperatures should jump nearly 30 degrees, reaching the low 60s.

Saturday looks even warmer, starting out in the low 50s and pushing as high as the mid 70s.

A late day front will bring some clouds and perhaps a few stray showers. The timing of the front is, of course, uncertain this far out, and a quicker frontal passage would prevent such warm temperatures. On the flip side, the front could wash out and never deliver the cooler air.

Assuming the front does move through later Saturday, temperatures would dive back into the 50s for Sunday with more widespread frost and freeze conditions Sunday night.

Temperatures may go on another warming trend between the early and middle parts of next week, but there is a large amount of variability in the models, so that remains very uncertain this far in advance.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.