Rainy Monday kicks off active weather week

finger lakes weather forecast monday october 19 2020 cloudy rain front
A front will bring rain to the area today, following by fluctuating temperatures for the next few days as it continually moves back and forth over the region. [Photo by Dagmar Nearpass]

Oscillating Front

A frontal boundary developing to our west this morning will bounce back and forth across the region this week, keeping our weather active and changeable.

The first impacts from this front will be a rainy Monday. Widespread precipitation along the front will move eastward across the Finger Lakes through the morning hours. Several hours of steady rain are likely, followed by a few more hours of on and off showers.

The rain should last most of the day once it starts, and at least a few showers should linger into the evening hours. By 8 PM tonight, most areas will have received between 0.4” and 0.6” of rain.

Temperatures are starting today into the low and mid 50s. As the rain moves in, temperatures will settle near or just above 50 degrees. South winds will blow at around 5 mph.

Overnight, the south winds should increase, and temperatures will rise back into the mid 50s. Another batch of rain will move in during the predawn hours as the front presses southeast across the region.

By noon Tuesday, most of the rain should be exiting the region and temperatures will have fallen back to around 50 degrees. The afternoon will remain cloudy, but should be mostly dry, with temperatures rising back into the low and mid 50s.

The front will move back to the north Tuesday night, bringing scattered showers during the late evening and early overnight periods. After midnight, temperatures will be on the rise again, reaching the upper 50s by dawn Wednesday.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday october 19 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Warm End of Week Ahead of Major Cool Down

South-southwest winds will turn gusty Wednesday morning as warm air surges northward. Gusts of 25-35 mph are likely, especially over higher elevations.

There may even be a window for some sunshine late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. High temperatures during this time should reach the mid 70s.

The front is not done yet, though. Late in the afternoon, it will push back southeast with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures Wednesday night will drop into the low 50s or perhaps upper 40s.

The pattern continues on Thursday, with the front shooting back north. This time, there should be little precipitation with it as the front will be starting to dissipate as a stronger system over the Midwest takes shape.

Thursday and Friday should both have a fair amount of sunshine and warm temperatures. Highs Thursday will range through the 60s and 70s, depending on the exact position of the front and its speed. Friday should be into the 70s throughout the region.

Friday night’s temperatures will remain near or above 60 degrees, but a strong cold front will move through sometime Saturday morning. Temperatures will immediately be knocked back into the upper 40s and low 50s, where they will remain the rest of the day.

Eventually, a new chilly pattern should settle in behind this system. Whether the cold air arrives for good this weekend is a bit uncertain, as a brief warm-up next week is hinted at on some of the models.

Overall, though, the pattern looks quite cool for the end of October, with highs commonly struggling or failing to reach even 50 degrees with morning lows in the 30s becoming routine.

More Information

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Rainy Fall Photos Needed!

I have been sent dozens of beautiful fall photos from our region over the years, but almost all of these focus on sunny or mixed skies.

Any photos from today’s rain would be greatly appreciated for future use in the blog header image!

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.