Mixed Skies
The weather will be quiet across the Finger Lakes on Friday and Saturday, with varying amounts of cloud cover.
A small high pressure system moved through overnight, and a second high is on the way from the middle of the country. In between, a weak low and subtle cold front will swing through this evening.
There is a bit of cloudiness in the Finger Lakes this morning, but skies across Western New York are clear. This clearing will overspread our region by mid-morning and should bring sunshine into the afternoon.
Clouds will move back in ahead of the front and should become thick again late in the day. A few stray showers cannot be ruled out late this afternoon into the evening and overnight, but most areas will not see any rain.
High temperatures today will rise into the upper 40s and low 50s on the back of the sunny periods. Winds will turn from the southwest this morning to the west this afternoon and northwest tonight. Wind speeds will be 5-10 mph with gusts around 20 mph.
Most areas will fall into the 30s overnight behind the front, but clouds will prevent it from being as cold as it was last night. Only the coldest pockets in the western Southern Tier and Cortland County should drop below freezing.
Saturday will start cloudy, but trend sunnier as the second high moves in. A few morning showers or flurries once again cannot be totally ruled out.
Northwest winds near 10 mph during the morning will transition to calm winds by the afternoon. This will set up highs only in the low and mid 40s, despite the increasing sunshine. Evening temperatures will quickly drop into the low 30s.
Storm System Rolls In, Sticks Around
As the high passes to our east, a low pressure system will be rapidly developing over the Midwest and tracking for the Great Lakes. The first sign of this weather maker will be an increase in the wind Saturday night.
Southeast winds will develop and build to 10-15 mph by dawn Sunday. For some parts of the Finger Lakes, this will push temperatures back toward 40 degrees overnight. This is most likely in the I-90 Corridor.
The wind will continue to increase Sunday morning, with wind speeds near 20 mph and gusts of 40-50 mph. A High Wind Watch is already in effect for Monroe and Genesee counties. Wind Advisories will likely be needed for most of the region.
Clouds will increase Saturday night with a few showers possible near dawn. A better chance for rain will come in the afternoon as a cold front moves through the region.
Even though thunder is not expected, any afternoon downpours could enhance the wind with gusts possibly reaching severe criteria (58+ mph). This possibility will be something to monitor over the weekend.
Temperatures Sunday should manage to get near 50 degrees before the front arrives and sends late-day temperatures back into the 40s.
Windy and unsettled weather will continue into Monday and Tuesday. Gusts during this time will be in the 25-35 mph range, mostly coming from the west on Monday and northwest on Tuesday.
These cold winds will produce lake effect precipitation behind the main system. On Monday, most of the precipitation will fall outside of the Finger Lakes, though a few showers or flurries off Lake Erie will be possible.
Tuesday has a better chance for precipitation, coming off Lake Ontario mostly as snow. Higher elevations could see a slushy coating. Snow showers may linger as late as Wednesday morning.
Highs on Monday will be in the mid and upper 40s, but Tuesday will stick to the upper 30s while Wednesday will be the coldest in the low 30s.
A generally cool pattern looks to be setting up for the rest of November.
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