Clouds and sun ahead of windy Sunday storm system

finger lakes weather forecast friday november 13 2020 sun clouds high pressure rain wind sunday
Friday and Saturday will be the proverbial calm before the storm with strong winds and rain likely on Sunday, followed by cold air and lake effect early next week. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Mixed Skies

The weather will be quiet across the Finger Lakes on Friday and Saturday, with varying amounts of cloud cover.

A small high pressure system moved through overnight, and a second high is on the way from the middle of the country. In between, a weak low and subtle cold front will swing through this evening.

There is a bit of cloudiness in the Finger Lakes this morning, but skies across Western New York are clear. This clearing will overspread our region by mid-morning and should bring sunshine into the afternoon.

Clouds will move back in ahead of the front and should become thick again late in the day. A few stray showers cannot be ruled out late this afternoon into the evening and overnight, but most areas will not see any rain.

High temperatures today will rise into the upper 40s and low 50s on the back of the sunny periods. Winds will turn from the southwest this morning to the west this afternoon and northwest tonight. Wind speeds will be 5-10 mph with gusts around 20 mph.

Most areas will fall into the 30s overnight behind the front, but clouds will prevent it from being as cold as it was last night. Only the coldest pockets in the western Southern Tier and Cortland County should drop below freezing.

Saturday will start cloudy, but trend sunnier as the second high moves in. A few morning showers or flurries once again cannot be totally ruled out.

Northwest winds near 10 mph during the morning will transition to calm winds by the afternoon. This will set up highs only in the low and mid 40s, despite the increasing sunshine. Evening temperatures will quickly drop into the low 30s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday november 13 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Storm System Rolls In, Sticks Around

As the high passes to our east, a low pressure system will be rapidly developing over the Midwest and tracking for the Great Lakes. The first sign of this weather maker will be an increase in the wind Saturday night.

Southeast winds will develop and build to 10-15 mph by dawn Sunday. For some parts of the Finger Lakes, this will push temperatures back toward 40 degrees overnight. This is most likely in the I-90 Corridor.

The wind will continue to increase Sunday morning, with wind speeds near 20 mph and gusts of 40-50 mph. A High Wind Watch is already in effect for Monroe and Genesee counties. Wind Advisories will likely be needed for most of the region.

Clouds will increase Saturday night with a few showers possible near dawn. A better chance for rain will come in the afternoon as a cold front moves through the region.

Even though thunder is not expected, any afternoon downpours could enhance the wind with gusts possibly reaching severe criteria (58+ mph). This possibility will be something to monitor over the weekend.

Temperatures Sunday should manage to get near 50 degrees before the front arrives and sends late-day temperatures back into the 40s.

Windy and unsettled weather will continue into Monday and Tuesday. Gusts during this time will be in the 25-35 mph range, mostly coming from the west on Monday and northwest on Tuesday.

These cold winds will produce lake effect precipitation behind the main system. On Monday, most of the precipitation will fall outside of the Finger Lakes, though a few showers or flurries off Lake Erie will be possible.

Tuesday has a better chance for precipitation, coming off Lake Ontario mostly as snow. Higher elevations could see a slushy coating. Snow showers may linger as late as Wednesday morning.

Highs on Monday will be in the mid and upper 40s, but Tuesday will stick to the upper 30s while Wednesday will be the coldest in the low 30s.

A generally cool pattern looks to be setting up for the rest of November.

What does FLX Weather Mean to You?

Since 2006, I have been pioneering weather forecasting and reporting in the Finger Lakes region. My years of experience and studying have led me to adopt three core values in my work: Honesty, Accuracy, and Accessibility. These three attributes guide the decisions I make, from the daily posts I write to major business decisions.

This has, in turn, produced a unique weather service that goes far beyond the automatic population of zip code forecasts with blended computer model data that most other weather providers use. No other source of local weather in the Finger Lakes, or surrounding regions, can match FLX Weather’s dedication to providing useful, hype-free, 100% human-made forecasts. Every map I draw and every zip-code forecast is made by hand and incorporates my experience and expertise.

Now is an extremely important point in time for Finger Lakes Weather. While other services push clicks through hype to get advertising revenue, I am looking to move towards fewer ads by removing all non-local ads. After many years of requests, and a large amount of research and up-front investment, a comprehensive and useful mobile app is nearing completion and will be available for free on the major app stores. And while misinformation and confusion in the media has never been higher, Finger Lakes Weather provides a consistent beacon of trustworthiness.

How much does all of this mean to you? How much does Finger Lakes Weather help you on a day to day basis, and especially during periods of more intense weather?

While many have been very generous with their financial support, Finger Lakes Weather has never been fully funded at the level it needs. Despite this, I continue to push forward and will persist for as long as I am able. But, additional support remains crucial to keeping Finger Lakes Weather stable and able to meet its core values.

Is Finger Lakes Weather worth more than a cup of coffee each month? If so, please sign up for a $5 monthly donation on the Fall Fund Drive page or using the secure form below. If you can give more than $5, that will help cover the costs for someone else who would give if they could, but are simply unable to do so.

Please, support this unique, special service to ensure its continuation for years to come. Thank you for your continued and much-appreciated support!


Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.