Late Fall See-Saw pattern continues

Warming Up

High pressure over the Carolinas and a low tracking north of the Great Lakes will set our region up for a quick warm up today and tomorrow.

Temperatures have already been on the rise overnight, with some areas gaining nearly 10 degrees in the few hours before sunrise. This has most of the region at or above 30 degrees to start the day.

South winds will strengthen now that the sun is rising and as the difference in pressure between the high and the low increase. Wind speeds will be 10-15 mph today with gusts of 25-35 mph. The strongest gusts should be over higher elevations, as is common with a south wind.

Thin clouds out ahead of the low will stream through the Finger Lakes throughout the day and into tonight. At various times, the clouds will be thicker or thinner, filtering the sunshine to varying degrees. All in all, though, it should be sunnier than it has been yet this week.

The warming today will be most efficient from Dansville to Rochester into the western half of Wayne County. Here, mid 50s are likely. Low 50s will spread throughout the western Southern Tier and along I-90 all the way to Syracuse.

A narrow band of upper 40s is likely just southeast of these areas, including Bath, Penn Yan, and Auburn. Much of the southeastern Finger Lakes will be locked in the mid 40s.

The wind will persist into the evening with little to no change in strength. Combined with continued periods of cloudiness, temperatures should only drop about 5 degrees overnight.

Winds will become more southwesterly on Friday with a slight decrease in speed. Sunshine should be more bountiful, and the entire region should warm into the mid and upper 50s. A few areas are likely to hit 60 degrees.

Cooling Down

The warm weather will not last, though. Winds will turn to the northwest Friday night and colder air will start to push back in.

Saturday morning’s lows will generally be in the low 40s. A steady cold wind and plenty of thick cloud cover will only allow temperatures to rise a couple degrees into the mid 40s for the afternoon highs.

Despite the cloud cover, no precipitation is expected.

Some breaking of the clouds is expected Saturday night. The areas that see clearing could drop into the upper 20s. Cloudier areas will stick to the low and mid 30s.

Clouds will increase again for Sunday as a warm front pushes north. A few rain showers, or even a little rain-snow mix, will move through ahead of the front. The afternoon will be the best chance for seeing any precipitation. Highs will be near or just above 40 degrees.

Temperatures rise Monday night as the warm front clears the region. By Monday morning, it may be near 50 degrees. The warmth will be very brief, with a cold front expected to move through during the morning hours. Temperatures will quickly fall back into the upper 30s.

Rain is likely on Monday, especially in the morning and early afternoon. Higher elevations could mix with or turn to snow.

Lake effect snow will be possible in the favored areas southeast of the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday before winds turn back to the south. Highs Tuesday are likely to be in the 30s.

Another shot of rain is likely on Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Temperatures will warm behind this as we head into next weekend, culminating in what may turn out to be another stormy Sunday.