Early Weekend Weather
Cloudy, damp weather will continue in the Finger Lakes for the next two days thanks to an active jet stream overhead.
While there are no well-organized weather systems tracking along the jet stream, subtle disturbances and atmospheric dynamics related to the jet stream itself will keep our weather dreary through most of Saturday.
Clouds will be plentiful this morning and will continue into the afternoon. A stray rain shower or bit of drizzle will be possible, but the chances for rain should increase slightly this afternoon and evening. The rain will stay scattered and light.
Light west and southwest winds will push temperatures into the mid and upper 40s this afternoon. Winds will turn more northwesterly tonight as the disturbance responsible for the showers passes through.
Nonetheless, temperatures will be slow to drop and should start Saturday between 35-40 degrees. That will be just cold enough for some of the showers to mix with or turn to snow. No accumulation will occur, though.
Temperatures Saturday will only rise a couple degrees with most areas seeing highs near or just above 40 degrees. Plenty of cloud cover and northwest winds around 10 mph will prevent it from getting any warmer.
Scattered showers and flurries will continue to be possible during the morning but should end for the afternoon. Some late day sun may even be possible as skies begin to clear and winds turn back to the southwest.
A Day of Sun Before a Stormy Pattern
Skies will turn clear Saturday night, but the southwest wind will prevent it from getting too cold. The northern half of the region should settle in the mid 30s, while further south, low 30s and upper 20s will take hold.
Sunday will be sunny and milder with highs working back into the upper 40s and low 50s. Winds will gradually turn to the south during the afternoon and southeast during the evening. Some clouds will also start to arrive in the late afternoon, thickening up overnight.
The turning wind and increasing cloud cover will be ahead of a moderately strong storm system that will track toward our region for the early part of the week.
The exact details of the impacts this system will have remain a bit unclear since the path of the low pressure center is expected to be very close to the Finger Lakes. A path directly overhead would actually bring lesser impacts, keeping the heavy rain and wind to the east and most of the snow to the west.
A track further to the east, where we get into a steady accumulating snow seems unlikely. A track further to the west, where we see higher rain amounts and stronger wind gusts remains possible, though.
At a minimum, expect periods of rain off and on Monday with some gusty winds. Be aware of the potential for some heavier rain and strong winds, though.
As the low tracks north, it should stall out, hanging around Tuesday and Wednesday. Both days should have at least some light precipitation in the region. Tuesday will most likely see rain turn to snow as cold air wraps around the system, while snow showers are more likely Wednesday.
Some minor snow accumulations should be expected during this time, but will probably not amount to more than a coating to an inch or two, unless some localized lake enhancement takes place. Given the expected position of the low, however, this seems more likely along the shore of Lake Erie and over the Tug Hill than it does in the Finger Lakes.
After a couple quiet days toward the end of next week, another system may make a run at us next weekend, but it is far too early to speculate much about the impacts it may have.
Overall, a colder weather pattern seems to be setting up behind these storm systems with daytime highs commonly in the 30s as we head deeper into December.