A surge of warmer air will move into the Finger Lakes ahead of a cold front today, bringing the warmest air yet in 2021.
Out ahead of this system, skies are a mix of sun and clouds. Expect alternating periods of more sun than clouds, and more clouds than sun, through the morning and first part of the afternoon.
Meanwhile, winds will increase from the south, reaching speeds of 10-15 mph this afternoon. Higher elevations may gust over 30 mph at times.
Temperatures will be warmest in the Genesee Valley and Rochester area where low 50s are likely. Highs will be near 50 for most areas west of Cayuga Lakes and in the upper 40s to the east. A few higher elevations in Central New York may stick closer to 45.
Scattered rain showers will develop this afternoon and drop southeast across the region. These should start to pop up after 3 PM. Individual showers will be brief and rain amounts will be minimal.
Temperatures will slowly fall through the 40s and into the 30s this evening as winds turn to the west and increase further. Between sunset and midnight, gusts will be between 30-40 mph. The wind will decrease thereafter.
Thursday will be cooler with highs back into the low 30s. A few marrow bands of lake effect snow will be possible, mostly in Wayne, northern Cayuga, and Onondaga counties. Locally an inch or two may fall.
Elsewhere, expect a mix of sun and clouds Thursday. Winds from the northwest will continue to gust over 20 mph.
Mostly clear skies Thursday night will allow temperatures to fall into the teens. Winds will be back out of the south on Friday with ample sunshine, pushing afternoon temperatures into the upper 30s.
Weekend & Next Week’s Weather
Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes Friday night, increasing our clouds and south winds. By dawn Saturday, precipitation will be moving in from the southwest and wind gusts will be between 35-45 mph.
There is some question of precipitation type Saturday morning as the precipitation rolls in. At least a brief period of snow is likely at first, followed by a quick transition over to rain. Some areas of sleet or freezing rain may be possible, but the ice potential is probably low with temperatures quickly rising through the low 30s.
Most of the rain showers will depart during the midday or early afternoon. Winds will turn to the west and drop in intensity. Cold air will not immediately move in on the wind shift though, and highs should push into the mid 40s. Some late day sun will also be possible.
After a mostly clear evening, clouds will move back in from the south after midnight Saturday night. Winds will also swing back around to the south but will remain light.
Sunday morning’s temperatures will depend on the timing of the clouds and south winds, but should generally be between 25-30 degrees.
The wind will become a bit blustery again on Sunday, pushing temperatures into the mid and upper 40s. A few 50s are not out of the question north of I-90.
A few scattered rain showers will be possible, especially across the southern half of the region in the afternoon. Steadier rain should remain south.
Next week will start off quiet with sunshine mixing with clouds on Monday. Highs Monday will be in the low 40s.
A nighttime cold front will bring a few flurries and send temperatures back into the 30s for Tuesday. Tuesday looks sunny as the front quickly moves out of the region.
The pattern looks more unsettled for the middle and end of next week, but the models have yet to consolidate on a favored day or days for active weather. Uncertainty abounds as a result, both in precipitation and temperatures.
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