Staying dry and heating up

finger lakes weather forecast monday may 17 2021 sun clouds warm
Warm but dry air will keep the weather quiet early in the week, but an increase in humidity later in the week will have it feeling and acting more summer-like. [Photo by Lisa Miller]

Warming Trend Continues

The weather this week will pick up right where last week and the weekend left off.

High pressure continues to exert its influence over the Eastern United States and is centered roughly along the Mid-Atlantic coast. For the remainder of the week, this high will remain nearly stationary, only drifting southward a bit and thus allowing even warmer air into the region.

The chances for pop-up afternoon showers were higher yesterday than other days as some upper atmosphere energy passed through. That will not be the case today, or any of the next few days. So, while an afternoon shower will still be possible, they will be very few and far between.

The daily cloud cover routine will hold for the next few days as well. Mornings will start off clear, followed by late morning fair-weather clouds developing. These will continue through the afternoon before dissipating late in the day. Skies will remain clear overnight.

Very light winds will also continue with speeds over the next few days at or below 5 mph. Wind directions will generally be from the south and southwest, but some local variations are likely with the background flow so light.

Daily high temperatures are now warmer than the seasonal average and will continue to climb. Highs today will be in the upper 60s and low 70s. Most areas will be into the mid 70s tomorrow. By Wednesday, 80s will start to appear with most of the region ending up in the 78-82 degree range.

Dewpoints will remain quite low for the first part of the week, only sitting in the 40s. This dry air will help keep the shower activity to a bare minimum and will keep it from feeling muggy out.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday may 17 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Popping Into Summer

Temperatures will plateau later in the week as they reach summer-like levels.

Low and mid 80s will be common on Thursday with most areas in the mid 80s by Friday. Both days will have sunshine filtered by thin clouds. Southwest winds will blow at 5-10 mph, helping give temperatures the extra boost.

The clouds will also keep it warm at night, with nighttime temperatures remaining in the 60s. Dewpoints will also jump up, reaching the 50s on Thursday and low 60s on Friday.

However, both days are expected to be dry as well with little atmospheric support for any shower development.

As we head into the weekend, we may start to see some changes to the pattern. It will remain very warm with highs well into the 80s. Dewpoints will continue to build into the 60s, making it feel muggy. Lastly, the atmosphere will be more capable of producing some afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The confidence in thunderstorm development is very low at this point, but it is at least a possibility. These currently look like scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and not widespread, long-lasting events.

Warm temperatures, increasing humidity, and chances for rain from time to time look to continue into next week as well, though it may not get quite as hot as it will this weekend, at least for a few days.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.