Refreshing Air Mass
A strong high pressure system is moving across Canada north of the Great Lakes and will eventually exert its influence over the Finger Lakes.
For the daytime hours today, though, we remain under the influence of high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas. This high continues to supply high amounts of humidity to go along with warm temperatures.
Dewpoints will again sit near 70 degrees today, resulting in that heavy, soupy feeling we have been dealing with all week.
There is little to trigger showers and storms today, though a few stray showers will be possible across the southern third of the region. For the most part, it will just be a mix of sun and clouds, once the morning cloudiness burns off.
High temperatures will rise into the low and mid 80s this afternoon.
Winds will turn to the north-northeast tonight as the Canadian high moves closer. Much less humid air will push south into the area. Dewpoints will drop from near 70 degrees at sunset to the 40s after midnight.
The drop in humidity will allow overnight temperatures to fall back to or just below 60 degrees. Clear skies are likely through the overnight.
Dewpoints will remain comfortably in the 40s and 50s both Thursday and Friday. Thursday will be mostly sunny, but Friday will mix some clouds in. A stray shower cannot be ruled out as some of the humidity tries to push back north, but with the dry air in place, I am skeptical anything more than a few spits across the southern half of the region are able to develop.
Despite the significant drop in humidity, afternoon highs will remain steady, with both Thursday and Friday in the low 80s with a few isolated mid 80s.
Weekend Weather and Beyond
Saturday will follow the precedent set by Thursday and Friday. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds and dewpoints will hold fast in the 50s. Temperatures may step back a couple degrees, but most areas will still be around 80 degrees.
A cold front will move through the region on Sunday. As I mentioned yesterday, the timing of the front will be key to our thunderstorm chances and whether any storms are strong. As I also mentioned, it is a bit early to pinpoint that timing, and the models have been inconsistent with the timing.
So, we are still in a wait-and-see pattern for the details on Sunday. At some point, a band of showers and possibly thunderstorms should move through, though.
Behind this front, temperatures will continue to retreat. Highs on Monday will be low 70s, followed by upper 60s on Tuesday and possibly just low and mid 60s Wednesday.
Scattered showers will be likely during this time, and there is a chance for some steadier rain, though that remains highly uncertain this far in advance.
Temperatures will bounce back late next week with near average highs in the 70s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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