High Pressure Departs
A large area of high pressure will keep control of the weather across the Finger Lakes today.
This high is centered over West Virginia this morning and will continue to slide southeastward today.
Sunshine will be plentiful throughout the day. A few small fair weather clouds may bubble up, and a patch of afternoon thin cirrus clouds may lightly filter some of the sunshine. No rain will fall from any of these clouds, though.
Winds will be light from the northwest at around 5 mph. However, the core of the cool air has departed, so temperatures will be several degrees warmer today. Look for highs mostly in the mid 70s. The I-90 corridor may see upper 70s, while higher elevations will stick to the low 70s.
Tonight, skies will start out mostly clear, allowing temperatures to drop back into the 50s. Clouds will increase after midnight and winds will turn to the south, holding temperatures mostly steady thereafter.
Clouds will continue to increase Friday morning, and a warm front will bring an area of showers through during Friday afternoon. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out but will be rare. These showers will be most likely during the mid and late afternoon.
Temperatures will peak during the midday and early afternoon, before the rain arrives, in the mid 70s.
Behind the warm front, dewpoints will jump into the 60s and an active jet stream will build in overhead. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday evening and through the night. Nighttime temperatures will remain in the 60s.
Father’s Day Weekend Uncertainties
Unfortunately, significant uncertainties remain about this weekend’s weather. Model differences remain large for Saturday’s weather but have trended away from a severe threat locally.
However, I have noticed a trend for models to show an idea consistently in the 4-7 day timeframe, abandon the idea for a short time, then come back to it just before the event unfolds. Therefore, I remain a bit skeptical and would be unsurprised if the models start to swing back toward their original ideas soon.
For planning purposes, the most likely scenario will be for Saturday to be mainly dry but with a few scattered showers or storms around, especially in the morning. Even if the models revert to their previous projections, the morning was still the most favored time for thunderstorms. Most of the day should be rather dry.
Uncertainties influencing Saturday’s weather include the position of the jet stream, the position and strength of a cold front, and the available moisture.
High temperatures on Saturday should break into the 80s. Assuming it stays mostly dry, highs could push into the mid 80s.
An active jet stream will remain nearby or overhead into Sunday. Again, forecast confidence is low, but I have added a few thunderstorms into the realm of possibility. For the most part though, Father’s Day should by dry. Temperatures will likely top out in the low 80s.
A hot and humid day is on the way for Monday with highs pushing toward 90 degrees and dewpoints at least in the upper 60s.
A small disturbance may move through during the afternoon which could trigger showers and storms. Anything that manages to pop up could have a hail or wind threat.
The best chance for rain in the coming days will be on Tuesday as a strong cold front barrels into the region. Heavy downpours may end up being the biggest concern on Tuesday with a very moist atmosphere in place.
Wednesday next week will turn out a lot like yesterday with lots of sunshine and cool temperatures.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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