Cold Front Approaching
The recent stretch of active weather will taper off and come to an end, but quiet weather will only last a day before the next active pattern sets up.
A cold front is moving into Western New York this morning while Tropical Storm Elsa is just off the coast of New Jersey. Elsa will have no direct and few indirect impacts on our area today, so our focus will be on the cold front.
Skies are mostly cloudy this morning and will remain as such throughout the day. Despite the front being to our west, winds will be from the northwest today as Elsa’s one contribution.
Those winds will keep temperatures to the mid 70s and have already begun to pull slightly drier air into the region. While dewpoints will remain high in the upper 60s to near 70, the amount of moisture available for precipitation will be less. That means torrential downpours, and thus flash flooding, are a much lower concern today.
There should be enough daytime heating and energy from the front to trigger scattered afternoon showers nonetheless. Lightning will be limited, with just a few weak thunderstorms. The best chance for rain will be during the mid and late afternoon.
The front will move through tonight, allowing dewpoints to drop through the 60s and into the 50s. With plenty of clouds lingering through the night, temperatures will remain in the mid 60s. Scattered showers and drizzle will be possible and may linger into very early Saturday morning.
Saturday will turn out dry with the only exception being the early morning drizzle. I would not be surprised to see a few isolated pockets of drizzle extend into the mid or even late morning hours, but most areas should dry out by then.
Breaks of sunshine will appear during the afternoon, with a gradual trend towards sunnier skies. Winds will be light out of the north with speeds around 5 mph. Highs will once more stick to the mid 70s. Dewpoints will be comfortable in the 50s.
Warm, Humid, Rainy Weather Returns
By Sunday morning, south winds will be back and the humidity and active weather will not be far behind.
After some sunshine early, a warm front will approach during the afternoon. As the front moves in, dewpoints rise through the 60s and the atmosphere will become moisture laden once again. Showers and some heavier downpours will accompany the front.
There is still some uncertainty in the timing of the rain and threat for locally excessive rain amounts. This should continue to become more clear over the next day or so.
Sunday should be able to break into the low 80s after starting the day near 60. Sunday night will have temperatures in the upper 60s with the humidity firmly in place.
Much of next week will then be a revolving door of high humidity, warm temperatures, and afternoon showers and storms. There will likely be some variations in the chances for storms and their intensity based off subtle features that the models cannot resolve properly at this point.
For example, small areas of enhanced winds aloft could organize storms and lead to more severe weather, but pinpointing those areas and timing them to align with the daytime heating this far in advance is not possible.
With high amounts of moisture in the atmosphere, the bigger concern next week could end up being localized flooding issues.
High temperatures next week will likely be kept to the 80s by the afternoon thunderstorms. Overnight lows will stick close to 70 degrees.
More Information:
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