Another disturbance will pass through the region today, touching off a few more showers and thunderstorms.
Already this morning a batch of rain and thunder is moving through portions of the Finger Lakes. This activity will continue tracking eastward through the mid-morning hours. It should also start to weaken as it reaches the eastern half of the region. No severe weather is associated with these showers and storms.
After a lull for a couple hours, a few more additional showers and small thunderstorms will try to develop during the midday and early afternoon hours. These will especially be possible across the southern and eastern portions of the region, but a few isolated cells to the north and west are possible as well.
A few models show a few more stray showers and storms persisting into the late afternoon, but the main focus will be this first half of this morning and the first half of this afternoon. Generally, the activity this afternoon should be sporadic, and many areas will see little to no additional rain.
Any thunderstorms that do form will have the potential for some gusty winds. An isolated wind damage report or two will be possible, mainly over the southeastern quadrant of the Finger Lakes.
It will remain very muggy, with dewpoints around 70 degrees. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
An area of high pressure will build in tonight, leading to clearing skies. Temperatures will drop back into the low and mid 60s.
Thursday will be quiet with a mix of sun and clouds as the high pressure moves through. Dewpoints will back off to the mid 60s, which will still feel muggy, but not quite as oppressive. Highs will increase though, reaching the mid and upper 80s.
More Rain, but then Quieter
The break in the rain will be short-lived as another slow-moving system moves through the region Friday and Saturday.
Friday will start off with a mix of sun and clouds. Morning lows will be back near 70 degrees as dewpoints rise. By the afternoon, dewpoints will be in the low 70s with temperatures into the mid 80s.
This will supply plenty of fuel for thunderstorms. However, the best support for the approaching system will remain to the northwest, and winds aloft will be modest. This makes the forecast a bit complicated.
The best chance for rain Friday will be near Lake Ontario, and particularly near and west of Rochester, extending into areas west of I-390. Further east, throughout most of the Finger Lakes, a few isolated pop-up showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon.
The rain and thunderstorms will slowly push east Friday night and throughout Saturday. There are plenty of details that remain uncertain this far in advance, but for an initial reaction, plan on more rain than not for Saturday.
By Sunday, this system should be to our south and east. It is slow enough moving and projected to be close enough by that the confidence in a dry day is low, though. Even if it does stay dry, there will probably be plenty of clouds in place.
Most of next week looks relatively quiet for a change. The best chance for rain will come on Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Temperatures will stick to the low 80s early in the week before the front, but will retreat into the 70s behind the front for the latter half of the week.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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