Window for a few severe thunderstorms opens this afternoon

Mid-Afternoon Threat

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible during the mid-afternoon hours as activity left over from the Upper Midwest last night moves into the area.

These thunderstorms developed last night over northern Minnesota and remained strong through Wisconsin. The storms weakened over Michigan and now, early this morning, are crossing into southern Ontario, Canada.

By the early afternoon, this activity will be moving into New York State, where it will encounter some modest conditions for storm development and organization.

The storms should redevelop into a few cells or a small line of storms that will work their way across the Finger Lakes. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, along with frequent lightning. This will be a quick-moving system, so rain amounts will remain low.

This line will move through during the mid-afternoon, mainly between 1-4 PM. After that, additional showers and storms will pop up for the late afternoon and evening. These storms will be weaker and have less of a chance for severe weather, but more of a chance for locally heavy rain.

Before any storms arrive today, skies will be hazy with wildfire smoke. Temperatures will quickly climb into the low and mid 80s, providing some of the fuel for the first round of storms.

Overnight, showers will linger, possibly continuing into Wednesday morning. Lows will drop into the mid 60s.

Cooler Weather

Skies will gradually brighten on Wednesday. There may still be some wildfire smoke in the atmosphere, but probably not as much as the last few days.

Northerly winds will set up behind the cold front that will trigger the showers and storms today, allowing cooler air to seep into the region. Look for highs Wednesday to reach the mid 70s.

Another system will move into the region on Thursday. The atmosphere looks to be lacking in instability, which is the fuel needed for thunderstorm growth and development. Therefore, just scattered showers are expected at this time with highs in the upper 70s.

Showers may linger into Friday morning with another reinforcing shot of cooler air. Highs on Friday will only reach the low 70s. Clearing skies Friday night will send temperatures into the low and mid 50s.

Saturday looks dry but no warmer, with highs again in the low 70s. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds.

Scattered showers will be possible later Sunday into early Monday. A few other chances for showers will be possible next week as well. Highs will remain in the lower half of the 70s through the middle of next week before some milder air begins to work back in.

More Information:

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.