Tropical airmass returns to the Finger Lakes

finger lakes weather forecast monday august 16 2021 clouds humid tropical storm fred rain
Clouds will increase today with showers moving in tonight, setting the stage for a humid, wet week ahead which may include the remains of Tropical Storm Fred. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Increasing Humidity, Showers

High pressure is departing the region today, opening us back up to high levels of humidity and the potential for downpours much of the week.

Most of today should remain dry as the high pressure keeps the moisture at bay just a little longer. This high is skirting eastward through New England and will depart the region by this evening.

On the backside of the high, winds have turned to the south, albeit lightly for now. Wind speeds most of today will be around 5 mph before increasing some this evening.

Sunshine will filter through the clouds at times this morning, but the later in the day it gets, the thicker the cloud cover should become.

A few late afternoon showers may make their way into the southwestern parts of the region, mainly near and south/west of I-6 and I-390. Some of these may show on the radar but fail to reach the ground before evaporating.

Temperatures today will be around 80 degrees. Morning and early afternoon dewpoints will stick to the 50s but will then push into the 60s late in the day.

Showers will spread across the region during the evening hours and continue through the night. Most of the rain should be light, but a few brief downpours may become embedded within the larger area of lighter rain.

This rain may linger well into Tuesday morning but should be clearing out by the midday hours. The nighttime clouds, rain, and south winds will hold overnight temperatures in the mid 60s.

The question for Tuesday afternoon will be whether or not additional showers and storms pop up during the afternoon. This may partially depend on how quickly the rain departs tomorrow morning. A faster departure will allow more time for the atmosphere to recover and prime itself for storm development.

Severe weather is unlikely with any storms but locally heavy downpours will be a concern.

Highs on Tuesday will again top out around 80 degrees but could get a bit warmer if the morning rain departs quickly and some sun breaks out. Dewpoints will be uncomfortably muggy near 70 degrees, where they will remain throughout the week.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday august 16 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Remnants of Fred

The weather Wednesday into Thursday, and especially Wednesday night, will depend on the path of the remains of Tropical Storm Fred.

Regardless of where the heaviest rain from the remains of Fred end up, at the very least we should see additional showers and embedded downpours Wednesday and Thursday.

The concern will be if a stripe of heavier rain amounts moves into the area to produce localized rain amounts over two inches.

As of now, the region has dried out enough that even a couple inches of rain should not cause flooding issues, but it will still be something to monitor, depending on how the rainfall tonight, Tuesday, and earlier Wednesday sets up.

It will remain very muggy through the middle of the week. High temperatures Wednesday could jump well into the 80s with some morning sunshine but should be cooler on Thursday with a greater chance for rain throughout the day.

Little changes in the overall pattern for the late week and possibly even the weekend. Pop up showers and storms will be possible, if not likely. Temperatures will remain warm, but not too hot, and humidity levels will remain uncomfortably high.

A respite from the humidity may come next week, but a front may also move through the region, temporarily leading to some humid and rainy conditions Tuesday or Wednesday.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday august 16 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.