Saturday Evening Update
A front will move into the area tomorrow afternoon and serve as a focal point for thunderstorms Sunday evening.
Most of the daytime hours tomorrow will be rather cloudy with on and off spits of showers, especially across the northern half of the region. Temperatures will be warmer to the south, where clouds and showers are less prevalent south of the front.
By the evening, some energy will move along the front and into our region, leading to an uptick in precipitation, including the possibility of some thunderstorms.
How much the thunderstorms will be able to develop is still a significant question, but enough model guidance is showing the chance for one or two clusters of stronger storms that I felt it prudent to make a special post. The Storm Prediction Center has likewise upgraded our severe probability to “Level 2- Slight.”
The primary threat from any of these clusters, should they manage to develop, will be locally damaging winds. Sporadic to scattered tree damage and power outages will be possible.
Should the storms develop, they would be quick moving as they race off to the east-southeast. As such, the flooding threat should be minimized despite some briefly torrential rain.
The one exception would be if multiple intense clusters develop and move over the same areas. This is not overly likely, though.
These are most likely to be nighttime storms, coming anytime in the 8 PM to 2 AM timeframe. Additional showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible before and after these times, but the primary severe threat is in the evening and early overnight.
Also, as an early head’s up, and echoing what I said in Friday morning’s post: Wednesday will be another day to monitor for widespread, possibly strong thunderstorms. There is a lot that could prevent this potential from being realized, but it is something I will be closely watching and will update further on in my post Monday morning.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
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