Temperatures bottom out today, then rise this weekend

finger lakes weather forecast thursday september 30 2021 lake effect clouds showers chilly cool
Lake effect clouds and a few showers today will accompany our coldest daytime highs since May. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

September Ends Chilly

Northerly flow on the backside of low pressure over eastern Canada will bring in the coldest air since May today and tonight.

For most areas in the Finger Lakes, the last time the temperature failed to reach 60 degrees during a day was at the end of May. That will be the case once again today, though, thanks to the persistent influx of cool air from the north and ample cloud cover.

The clouds are resulting from a combination of moisture rotating around the low and some extra moisture from Lake Ontario. Some lake effect rain showers are also scattered about the area this morning, mostly for areas east of Cayuga Lake.

Not much will change over the course of the day. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, though a few brief glimpses of sunshine will be possible here and there.

The showers will remain limited and should decrease even further as we head into the afternoon. A few more showers will redevelop tonight before winds shift and we lose the connection to Lake Ontario.

As alluded to above, most areas will not reach 60 degrees today. The urban areas of Rochester and Syracuse have the best shot at reaching 60, though a few more locations along and north of I-90 may also manage the feat.

For the rest of the area, highs will be in the upper 50s for lower elevations and mid 50s for the hills.

Winds will become more westerly tonight, allowing skies to partially clear. Temperatures in the 40s will become widespread and a few pockets of upper 30s will be possible throughout the southern half of the region, in particular parts of Allegany, Steuben, and perhaps Cortland and Tioga counties. A few isolated pockets of frost could result.

Clouds will quickly fill back in on Friday as daytime heating warms the surface and winds pivot back to the northwest. Rain is not expected, though.

Most areas will return to the low and mid 60s, though Cortland County may get stuck just under 60 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday sepetember 30 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Warmer Pattern Returns

Winds will turn to the southwest Friday night and warmer air will start to move back into the area. Overnight temperatures will still make it into the 40s for the southern half of the region, but the northern half will stick to the low and mid 50s.

Saturday will start off with ample sunshine. Thin clouds will work in from the west during the morning and into the afternoon. Late in the day, the clouds will become thicker, but most of the day should have plenty of sunshine.

Temperatures will be much warmer on Saturday thanks to the sunshine and southwest winds. Many areas will be around 75 degrees with just the higher elevations sticking to the low 70s.

Clouds will continue to thicken Saturday night, and by dawn Sunday, some showers will be moving in from the west. Temperatures overnight will also be much warmer, with lows in the mid and upper 50s.

Rain will increase Sunday morning with showers lingering into the afternoon. The morning looks rainier than the afternoon, though the details are still a bit uncertain.

With the clouds and showers, high temperatures will come back a bit to the upper 60s.

Monday will see more rain in the area, but this time the afternoon looks like it may have a higher chance than the morning. A few rumbles of thunder may also be possible. Highs will be around 70 degrees. Both Sunday night and Monday night will have mild temperatures around 60 degrees.

A few more showers will be possible on Tuesday as a front pushes through. Temperatures will retreat to the mid 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday behind the front. This is close to average for early October.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday sepetember 30 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

  1. Tom Ithaca

    There won’t be frost because the dewpoint is too high. Anyplace below 40 will be saturated.