Warmer air returns to the Finger Lakes

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday october 19 2021 sunny mild warm up
High pressure over the Southeastern US will bring sunshine and warmer temperatures into the area today, despite a chilly start to the day. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Mild Temperatures

A large high pressure system centered over the southern Appalachian Mountains is nosing into our region and seizing control of our weather.

With the clockwise flow of air around high pressure, warm air has built up through the Great Plains, into the Upper Mid-West, and into Canada north of the Great Lakes. Now, that warmer air is spilling southeastward into our region.

Stepping outside this morning, it will be hard to tell these changes are ongoing. Most areas are starting the day under 45 degrees, with several areas down into the 30s. it may be hard to believe, but most areas are still warmer than their climatological averages this morning. The climate state at Cornell in Ithaca, for example, has an average low of 38 this morning, but it is in the mid 40s.

Regardless, the clear skies that brought in the nighttime chill will also help temperatures rise in a hurry after sunrise.

By this afternoon, low and mid 60s will be widespread through the region. Higher elevations, as usual, will be on the cooler side of that range. Only a few hilltops in northern Cortland County may fail to get above 60 degrees.

Winds will be from the west-northwest and still a bit on the blustery side. Wind speeds will be 10-12 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph. The wind will only drop a little after sunset as warm air continues to pump into the region.

Despite another night of clear skies, temperatures tonight will be mild thanks to the wind. Low and mid 50s will be widespread overnight, thought a few areas of Allegany and Cortland counties could slip into the upper 40s.

Wednesday will be more of the same, only with lighter west winds. Top gusts Wednesday will be around 20 mph.

Skies will again be sunny, though a few thin clouds will pass through from time to time. Areas that see mid 60s today will be in the upper 60s to near 70 tomorrow. Higher elevations will be around 65 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday october 19 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

See-Saw Weather

Clouds will increase Wednesday night ahead of the next weather system. A few stray showers may work their way in as early as Wednesday evening, but most areas will stay dry overnight. A slightly better chance for a few showers will come early Thursday morning.

Nonetheless, temperatures will again approach 70 degrees Thursday afternoon. As a cold front moves in, however, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop. The rain should become more widespread early in the evening.

Cold air will not immediately move in, and morning lows Friday should be near or slightly above 50 degrees. Clouds and a few more showers will linger early in the day. However, with steady northwest winds and clouds slow to depart, temperatures will only rise a few degrees on Friday with highs mostly in the mid 50s.

The weekend will be back to chilly weather. Both Saturday and Sunday will have highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Rain showers will be possible, but it is impossible to say at this time when small disturbances will pass through to enhance the lake effect showers.

Both days will also be blustery, similar to the last couple of days this week, with gusts occasionally exceeding 30 mph.

The core of the cold will move in for Monday. Even with lake effect clouds and showers, 30s will become widespread Monday morning, and afternoon highs will be in the mid and upper 40s. Skies will then clear Monday night, and a cold, potentially frosty night will ensue. Some areas may even get a killing freeze Monday night, though this is a bit far out to be sure of that.

Temperatures will again bounce back after that, with highs into the 50s Tuesday and possibly 60s thereafter.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday october 19 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.