Cold front approaches with showers, especially late

finger lakes weather forecast thursday october 21 2021
The best chance for rain today will be near and after sunset with a cold front arriving just before dawn Friday. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Incoming Cold Front

Mild air will remain in place today ahead of a cold front that will move through late tonight.

Out ahead of the front, there are a few morning showers in the region. These are mostly contained to areas near and north of I-90. Further south, skies are starting out partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Much of the daytime hours will be quiet. Skies will be mixed between sunny periods and some occasional clouds.

South and southwest winds will blow at 5-10 mph with some locally stronger winds in the western Southern Tier. Gusts will be 20-25 mph, except again in the western Southern Tier, where gusts to 30 mph will be possible.

High temperatures should make it into the upper 60s at least for most areas. A few locations will likely break 70 again today.

Clouds will thicken late this afternoon and a few showers will start to move in from the west. Most of the precipitation will fall after sunset, though, as a broken line of showers, downpours, and perhaps a little thunder and lightning move through. For areas east of Cayuga Lake, this may not arrive until nearly midnight.

Showers will become more scattered after midnight, though a more concentrated area of light showers and drizzle may accompany the front itself around dawn Friday. Nighttime temperatures will remain near or slightly above 50 degrees ahead of the front.

A few showers will linger into Friday morning before the afternoon dries out. Sunshine will be limited to some breaks in the clouds late in the afternoon.

Winds will turn to the northwest behind the front with speeds of 5-10 mph and gusts around 20 mph. Between the clouds and winds, temperatures will only rise a couple degrees Friday, sticking to the low 50s for most areas.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday october 21 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Unsettled Pattern

The forecast begins to get a bis messy this weekend and then gets even more complicated next week, leading to lower than normal confidence in the forecast.

Much of the coming weekend looks dry, but there will be a few occasional showers. Areas closer to Lake Ontario will have a higher chance at seeing some rain this weekend. The morning and evening hours will have the best chance for some stray showers.

Sunshine may also be limited, though some occasional breaks through the clouds are expected.

Winds through the weekend will be from a generally west or northwest direction with speeds under 10 mph. Temperatures will remain cool, with highs near or slightly above 50 degrees. Higher elevations may stay just under 50.

Some patchy frost may develop Sunday morning across the Southern Tier, particularly if skies can partially clear.

The models for next week are a mess thanks to a stalled out weather system along the Mid-Atlantic coast and a potentially powerful system late in the week.

The trend in the models has been for the stalled out system to have influence further north. This has led to an increased chance for a cloudy but dry Monday and some rain late Tuesday. Some of the rain could be heavy.

Temperatures will be held in check Monday and Tuesday with highs remaining under 55 degrees.

Some milder air will come in for the middle of the week, likely peaking on Thursday with a run at 60 degrees at least.

Rain and wind will be possible to close out the week. Several models are outputting some hefty rain totals. If we get some heavier rain on Tuesday and a soaking a few days later, flooding could start to become an issue.

Everything is highly uncertain at this point, so continue to check back for updates.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday october 21 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.