Warm to cold to warm again

finger lakes weather forecast friday february 11 2022 warm cold front below average temperatures
An overall mild February pattern will be interrupted by another cold shot Sunday and Monday. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Turning Cold

Friday will be another mild day as southerly winds ahead of a cold front further push warm air into the region.

The south winds will be steady with speeds near or slightly above 10 mph. Top gusts will approach 30 mph.

Skies will be sunny through the morning, though some thin clouds will start to show up. Those clouds will become thicker for the afternoon.

The combination of sunshine and southerly winds will push temperatures from their start in the 20s quickly into the 40s. Most places should get to 45 degrees, and a few upper 40s are not out of the question, especially along I-390 between Rochester and Dansville.

Rain showers will begin to move in near or just after sunset, though dry air overhead may prevent at least some of the rain from initially reaching the ground.

On and off rain showers will continue through the night with temperatures declining only to the mid 30s. Nighttime winds will turn to the southwest at 5-10 mph. The wind and above freezing temperatures should continue to lead to some snowmelt through the night.

Winds will turn to the west Saturday morning and northwest Saturday afternoon as the front moves through. Accompanying the front may be a few brief bursts of snow which could make for some poor travel conditions for a small window of time. This will most likely be in the late morning and early afternoon.

Temperatures will stay mostly steady in the mid 30s until the shift in wind to the northwest. Then, a quick drop into the 20s is likely.

A few more snow showers will be possible throughout Saturday and Saturday night, with some lake effect also flaring up over the northern Finger Lakes. This snow band will travel westward Sunday morning with most of its accumulation taking place north of the Thruway.

Temperatures on Sunday will be a far cry from the warmth today with highs only in the mid 10s. Some lingering lake effect Sunday night will help keep some areas above zero, but much of the region will enter the subzero regions by Monday morning. Typically colder pockets could reach -10 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday february 11 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Turning Even Warmer?

Monday will match Sunday for cold temperatures with highs again only reaching the mid 10s. A few lake flurries may still be lingering, but most of the area should see a mix of sun and clouds.

South winds will kick in Monday night, though plenty of areas will still sneak below zero. Tuesday will turn out a bit warmer with highs in the mid 20s. The weather will remain quiet with a mix of sun and clouds. A stray snow shower cannot be ruled out, a result of the warmer air nudging its way in.

Wednesday will make a more significant jump with highs likely at least reaching the low 40s. It could be warmer, depending on how the cloud to sun ratio unfolds and how a strong system over the middle of the nation is taking shape.

That system is not likely to arrive in our area until Thursday night and Friday. Out ahead of it, blustery south winds could push highs Thursday into the 50s.

Wind and rain will be possible Thursday night into Friday, followed by some slightly cooler air next weekend. That cold air will be nothing like the cold moving in this weekend and will more be temperatures returning to near average levels.

That may be short-lived though with plenty of indications of continued warmth lasting into the end of February.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday february 11 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.