A boundary between warm air across the southern half of the United States and colder air over Canada extends from the Northern Plains into our region this morning.
Riding along this frontal boundary is an area of low pressure over Michigan. With this low to our west, and the high pressure that moved through yesterday to our east, southerly winds are in place over the Finger Lakes.
Temperatures have risen overnight with upper 20s and low to mid 30s throughout the Finger Lakes at 7 AM. The upward trend will continue into the afternoon, with highs in most places reaching the mid and upper 40s. The higher elevations of Central New York will stick to the low 40s.
Skies will be rather cloudy throughout the day, but a glimpse of sunshine here or there is possible. It will stay dry until about sunset, when some rain showers will move in, associated with the low pressure.
The rain should be scattered and light and will turn over to flurries this evening. Some limited lake effect will develop during the late evening and overnight with a coating to locally an inch over some localized areas.
By Wednesday morning, temperatures will be back in the mid 20s, but northwest winds will turn to the west or southwest.
With the frontal boundary overhead, temperatures will be varied throughout the area. The southern counties will be warmest, reaching the low 40s. The rest of the area will see upper 30s for lower elevation and mid 30s in the hills.
Another low will move along the front and spread snow into our area Wednesday night. This snow will be steadier with a widespread inch or two accumulating. A few localized areas could see closer to three inches, especially with some limited lake effect again developing and lingering into early Thursday morning.
Behind this second low, the front will be shoved to our south, allowing cold Canadian air to move in. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low 20s with afternoon highs only reaching the mid 20s.
High pressure will build in and skies may clear Thursday night. If this happens, pockets of sub-zero temperatures are possible with other areas just staying above zero.
From there, it may well be a literal zero-to-sixty as warm air starts to move back north.
Friday will see highs push into the low 30s with a mix of sun and clouds. Nighttime temperatures will drop back into the 10s initially, but will warm back into the 20s overnight.
A warm front will lift through on Saturday, resulting in a few rain and snow showers. A little ice cannot be ruled out, but the precipitation looks light and spotty, so it should not cause significant travel problems.
Behind the front, warm air will have free reign to surge northward. Temperatures will warm into the 40s Saturday night, and Sunday has a decent shot at warming into the 60s. Accompanying those warm temperatures will be some rain showers and gusty winds.
Monday is a mystery at this point, with a cold front expected sometime either during the day or that night. As long as the cold front is not through the region, warm air will dominate. Behind the front, temperatures should return closer to the seasonal averages in the 30s.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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