Warm air moves in for the Weekend; Watching Monday

finger lakes weather forecast friday march 4 2022 warming trend weekend sunday wind
Temperatures will peak on Sunday with highs well into the 60s, accompanied by strong winds. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Warming Trend

Cold temperatures this morning mark a low point for the foreseeable future as warmer air takes over this weekend.

High pressure is overhead Friday morning and will shift eastward during the day today. Clear skies associated with the high will be in place most of the day.

There are a few lingering lake effect clouds this morning that will not last long, and some thin clouds will work in late in the afternoon. The clouds will thicken tonight for a mostly overcast nighttime period. No precipitation is expected this evening or overnight.

Light southwest winds will blow at around 5 mph this morning. The wind will turn more westerly this afternoon with speeds just over 5 mph. Winds overnight will continue to bounce between the west and southwest before going calm after midnight.

Temperatures will be near the seasonal averages today with highs mostly in the mid 30s. Higher elevations will be in the low 30s, with a few upper 20s in the hills in and around Cortland County. Nighttime temperatures will spend most of the time in the 10s but will rise to around 20 by sunrise Saturday.

A warm front will move through on Saturday but with little to no precipitation. Skies will remain rather cloudy throughout the day. South and southeast winds will blow through the day at up to 10 mph and then will increase further overnight.

Afternoon highs will mostly be in the mid 40s, though a few areas north of I-90 and along I-81 may stick to the low 40s. Evening temperatures will drop to the low 40s and upper 30s but will rise after midnight as winds increase further.

By dawn Sunday, the Rochester area will likely be in the low 50s with mid 40s throughout most of the Finger Lakes. Afternoon highs will soar with most places eclipsing 65 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday march 4 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Active Weather

Rain showers will move through during Sunday morning, with a few showers lingering into the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be low, with most areas staying well under a quarter-inch.

The biggest story Sunday, outside of the warmth, will be the strong winds. Winds will turn from the southwest Sunday morning to the west-southwest Sunday afternoon.

The strongest winds will be during the afternoon as the direction turns more westerly. Gusts over 50 mph will be possible, especially along and north of the Thruway, and west of Seneca Lake.

The wind shift will mark the arrival of a front, which will see temperatures falling into the 50s late Sunday afternoon across the northern and western halves of the Finger Lakes. Temperatures will steadily fall Sunday night, reaching about 30 degrees by Monday morning.

An area of low pressure will move along the front Monday, spreading precipitation into our area. This precipitation is trending later and warmer, so early Monday morning may be dry.

As things look now, some snow and icy mix will move in later in the morning, then possibly turn over to mostly rain for the afternoon. Some icy mix and light snow will again be possible Monday evening. The heaviest rain also looks to be mainly south of the NY-PA State Line, but the flooding risk will still need to be monitored, especially in the Southern Tier.

This all remains highly sensitive to the position of the front and the strength of the low, so these details are not at all set in stone.

Light snow will end on Tuesday behind the low. High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday should be around the mid 30s.

Sunshine will allow warmer air back in on Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 40s. Another weather system will be possible on Thursday. Precipitation type is again uncertain, especially this far out, but the chances for snow are there.

Active weather will continue into next weekend as well.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday march 4 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.