Saturday Evening Updates
Active weather is likely in the Finger Lakes over the next 48 hours as a frontal boundary and several waves of low pressure move through.
There will be two big stories on Sunday: strong winds and warm temperatures.
Temperatures will be driven into the mid and upper 60s on Sunday as southwest winds pump warm air into the region. A few places may even hit 70 degrees.
Winds will be blustery in the morning, but will become strongest during the afternoon hours. Gusts near or over 60 mph will be possible between Rochester and Buffalo, with gradually lower maximum gusts the further southeast you go. Much of the Finger Lakes region will see gusts of 45-55 mph.
As of 5 PM, High Wind Watches were in place for counties served by the National Weather Service in Buffalo. These will be changed to Advisories or Warnings as confidence in the strength and duration of the strongest winds increases. Further southeast, Wind Advisories are in place.
Only some scattered showers are expected on Sunday, but more widespread, significant precipitation is likely on Monday.
It seems unlikely now that cold air will move in enough Sunday night for more than a little snow mixing with rain as the precipitation moves in Monday morning, especially across higher elevations and north of the Thruway.
For the most part, rain will be the dominant or only precipitation type. Locally an inch or more of rain may fall, which would lead to some minor flooding problems as area streams approach bank full.
If the front and low pressure set up far enough north on Monday, rain over the Finger Lakes could become more spotty. A few heavier showers and rumbles of thunder may even be possible in this scenario, with another day with highs in the 50s or 60s.
I am unlikely to have another update on Sunday unless greater hazards become possible for Monday.
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