Scattered showers, storms return to the Finger Lakes

finger lakes weather forecast friday may 13 2022 showers thunderstorms sunny warm hot humidity
Rain chances will gradually increase through the weekend, peaking on Monday as a cold front moves through. [Photo by Lisa Miller]

Gradually Increasing Rain Chances

Southeast winds will help increase the atmospheric moisture over the Finger Lakes over the next couple of days.

This will end our stretch of mainly cloudless, dry days, though not everyone will see rain right away.

There will still be plenty of sunshine today, but it will be mixed with clouds.

Thin clouds are over most of the region this morning, with some thicker morning clouds across the eastern Southern Tier. Those thicker clouds will burn off and some fair-weather cumulus puffs will develop later this morning.

A few of those cumulus clouds will grow large enough to produce some very isolated, small showers this afternoon. The best chance for any stray showers will be in the Southern Tier. A few rumbles of thunder may also be possible.

The further north, the lower the chances for rain. Most areas, even in the Southern Tier, will not see rain today.

Temperatures will again rise to the low and mid 80s across most of the region. In the 20 miles or so closest to Pennsylvania, temperatures will stick to the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. A lake breeze off Lake Ontario will also keep coastal areas a bit cooler.

The moisture will creep a bit further north Saturday, with morning low clouds making it further into the Finger Lakes. Like today, these clouds will burn off and get replaced with fair-weather cumulus clouds.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will pop up, but their coverage is expected to remain isolated. Again, most areas will probably not see rain on Saturday, but more will see rain on Saturday than today.

It will not be quite as hot with highs mostly in the upper 70s and low 80s. The best chance for temperatures in the 80s will be roughly along the I-90 corridor.

Dewpoints today will remain comfortable in the 50s but will be closer to 60 degrees much of Saturday. Late in the afternoon, the dewpoint may rise further into the low 60s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday may 13 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Sunday-Monday Thunderstorms

The chances for rain and thunder will increase further on Sunday and especially Monday.

Sunday will follow the same pattern of early morning low clouds followed by puffy cumulus. During the afternoon, there are hints that a subtle disturbance may enter the area, which could trigger a cluster of thunderstorms.

While the winds in the atmosphere are not conducive for severe thunderstorms, there is enough heat and moisture in the atmosphere that some localized gusty winds would be possible anyway. This will be something to watch over the next 48 hours.

Otherwise, Sunday will have just some isolated showers and storms. If the aforementioned cluster does not develop, the rain chances will be on par with Saturday.

Temperatures on Sunday should remain below 80 degrees, though a few places may get close. Mid and upper 70s will be widespread with dewpoints in the low 60s.

Winds Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will all remain light with speeds around 5 mph.

On Monday, a cold front will move through the region. The timing of the front still seems focused on the late morning or early afternoon, which could put the eastern regions at risk for thunderstorm development.

The atmosphere will be more supportive of severe thunderstorms on Monday, but only if the front does not move through before the daytime warming can build. Once the front moves through, temperatures will quickly drop back into the 60s for most of Monday afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be a couple of chilly days, with highs around or just under 60 degrees. Northwest winds will be on the blustery side Tuesday with a few morning showers. Sunny weather is expected from Tuesday afternoon, through Wednesday, and probably into Thursday as well.

Temperatures will increase late in the week, and while warm to hot conditions are favored, there is a large spread on the models, leading to more uncertainty than usual. This may be partly due to uncertainty in the chances for rain.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday may 13 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.