Mixed weather conditions for the Memorial Day holiday weekend

finger lakes weather forecast friday may 27 2022 showers thunderstorms memorial day weekend weather
Rain is likely Friday and early Saturday, but Sunday and Monday will be sunny and warm. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Unsettled Start

A slow-moving weather system will bring unsettled weather for Friday and the first half of Saturday before dry and warm conditions build into the Finger Lakes.

Rain showers are scattered about the region this morning, particularly over the northern and western Finger Lakes. While the individual rain showers are moving in a north-northeasterly direction, the overall area of unsettled weather will creep eastward today.

By the early and mid-afternoon, some thunderstorms will become embedded within the area of showers, especially along and south of a roughly Penn Yan to Syracuse line. This area of rain and thunder should mostly depart the region by 5 PM.

Some locally heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop. While the majority of the region should not see severe weather or flooding, there is a minimal chance for a couple isolated instances of either wind damage or flash flooding.

Some additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again this evening, lasting until about midnight before they dissipate and move east.

After a small lull overnight, more showers are expected Saturday morning, though they should quickly move off to the southeast with mostly dry conditions by noon.

Total rainfall amounts will be highly variable, with localized amounts ranging from around or under a quarter-inch to well over an inch. On average, around a half-inch will fall.

South winds will be breezy during the daytime hours today with speeds near or over 10 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph. The wind will turn more westerly this evening and overnight, and northwesterly on Saturday. Wind speeds Saturday afternoon could again approach 10 mph with gusts around 25 mph.

Despite the south winds today, the clouds and showers will ensure temperatures stick to the low and mid 70s, which is not a big rise over the morning lows. Temperatures tonight will fall back to the upper 50s with Saturday highs in the mid and upper 60s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday may 27 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Dry and Warm

Some sun may poke out of the clouds before the day is done on Saturday. Skies will clear Saturday night, and Sunday should be a sunny, pleasant day.

High pressure will pass overhead, keeping winds near calm. The small whisper of a breeze there is will come in from the south. With only a few isolated clouds, temperatures should have no problem reaching the mid and upper 70s.

The weather for Memorial Day on Monday will be dry and warm. There should again be plenty of sunshine, though some thin clouds high in the atmosphere may filter in from time to time.

Southwest winds will blow at only about 5 mph, but they will help temperatures rise. After morning lows in the upper 50s, afternoon highs will top out in the upper 80s.

The best chance for hitting 90 degrees in the upcoming days will be on Tuesday, but the chances for widespread 90 degree heat are slipping. Most areas will probably end up just shy of 90 degrees on Tuesday, but upper 80s will be widespread.

By Wednesday, the chance for some pop-up afternoon showers and storms will be introduced. This may put a limit on the heat, keeping highs mostly in the mid 80s. The chances for rain and storms are very uncertain and may partially depend on energy lingering from storms over the Midwest on Tuesday.

Thursday will have a better chance for rain and thunderstorms as a front moves into the area. The details are too uncertain this far out to ascertain much useful information.

The weather should dry out again for Friday and next weekend. Temperatures will settle into a near or slightly below average pattern for a few days with highs in the 60s or 70s.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday may 27 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.