Frontal boundary slowly clears out; weekend turns hot

finger lakes weahter forecast thursday june 23 2022 sun clouds showers hot weekend
Sunshine will increase Thursday and Friday, while temperatures push into the 90s by Sunday. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Turning Sunny and Dry

A stalled-out frontal boundary has been hanging around the area for several days now but will finally make some eastward progress today.

All the rain associated with the front is east of the region to start today, and the break between cloudy and clear skies is moving through the Finger Lakes.

The further east, the longer it will take for the clouds to break up this morning, while the further west, the more the sun will shine. Most areas should eventually get out of the thick cloud cover at some point today, though it may take until the afternoon for areas east of Cayuga Lake.

Skies will not be totally clear, though. Fair weather clouds will bubble up in the sunny areas this morning and will persist into the afternoon.

A few stray showers from these clouds cannot be ruled out, especially late this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Any rain that falls should be light and brief, and many areas will remain dry today.

While the rain and clouds will move further east, the surface boundary itself will be overhead, showing up best in the wind fields. Along the front, winds will be light and variable. To the east, south winds will blow at up to 10 mph. To the west, winds will be from the north-northwest at around 5 mph.

The front will dissipate and disappear tonight with light southwest winds taking over throughout the region. Skies will gradually clear, though some patchy fog may develop in the usual areas.

For temperatures, highs this afternoon will be around 80 degrees for much of the region. From roughly Elmira to Ithaca to Tully and eastward, mid 70s are more likely with the clouds lingering longer. Dewpoints will be more comfortable in the upper 50s to perhaps low 60s.

Nighttime temperatures will drop through the 60s this evening, ending up mostly between 55-60 degrees for the overnight lows.

Friday will be a pleasant day with sunshine, a few fair weather clouds, and warm but not too hot temperatures. Most areas should be near or just above 80 degrees with a gentle northwesterly breeze around 5 mph.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday june 23 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Briefly Hot

Winds will turn back to the south Friday night, only to become light and variable on Saturday with speeds under 5 mph.

Nonetheless, ample sunshine will help temperatures climb.

Temperatures Saturday morning will be close to the seasonal averages in the upper 50s and low 60s. The afternoon will warm noticeably above average with highs of 85-90 degrees. Dewpoints will remain relatively low in the mid and upper 50s.

South winds will pick back up Saturday night, reaching speeds of 10 mph. These winds will persist into Sunday, gradually turning to the southwest. A few gusts over 25 mph will be possible.

Some thin clouds will build in ahead of an approaching cold front, but there still should be plenty of sunshine on Sunday. This will help temperatures into the 90s for many areas, and a few places could even flirt with or exceed 95 degrees.

Humidity levels will remain tolerable with dewpoints rising from the upper 50s to the low and mid 60s later in the day.

As evening approaches, so too will the cold front with some scattered showers and thunderstorms. These will continue into the evening and overnight. With modest dewpoints, light winds aloft, and the nighttime timing, conditions look unfavorable for severe weather.

The front will be highly effective at ending the heat with highs near or just above 70 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Both days should have plenty of sunshine, though a stray shower cannot be ruled out completely.

Warmer air will quickly move back in for the middle of next week, with highs around 80 on Wednesday. The weather later in the week is less certain as we once again find ourselves on the periphery of a large area of heat and humidity to our southwest.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday june 23 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.