Only isolated rain, thunder over the next few days

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday july 12 2022 sun clouds few showers storms
A few isolated showers and storms will pop up this afternoon, but most areas will probably see little to no rain. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Minimal Rain Chances

Isolated rain is in the forecast for the next three days, but do not expect much, if any, to fall in your neighborhood.

A few showers raced through the region during the predawn and early morning hours. Not all areas saw these showers, but they were perhaps the most widespread precipitation we can expect this week.

The rest of the morning hours should be mainly dry until a few isolated, small cells pop up around midday. The occasional rain shower or small thunderstorm will continue into the afternoon hours. If the storms get really ambitious, they may gather into a small line segment or two.

There is plenty of wind energy in the atmosphere, so if any storms manage to grow sufficiently, some locally strong wind gusts are possible. This will be most likely across the southeastern quadrant of the Finger Lakes.

Between the showers and storms, which will be most if not all the day, there will be clouds and some breaks of sun. Southwest winds this morning will push temperatures into the mid 80s, but then winds will turn to the west and eventually northwest. The temperature should fall a few degrees over the second half of the afternoon.

The wind will be blustery, with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph.

Tonight, skies will clear and winds will let up. Temperatures will cool to the upper 50s and low 60s.

Wednesday, Wednesday Night, and Thursday will have a few stray showers, mainly in the afternoon. Most areas will not see any rain, and there is even some question whether any of these showers manage to develop at all.

Even in the unlikely event a location sees rain this afternoon, and both Wednesday and Thursday, the total amount over the three days will likely be well under a half-inch.

Temperatures will be on a downward trend, with highs in the low 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s on Thursday.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday july 12 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Turning Hot Again

Friday will likely be a sunny and dry day. A few fair weather clouds will bubble up during the daytime heating, but the rain chances look to be about zero.

Temperatures will start off comfortably cool with lows ranging through the 50s. Winds will be nearly calm throughout the day, with just a whisper of a north wind.

Nonetheless, temperatures will reverse course and begin warming. Highs on Friday will be several degrees warmer than on Thursday with most areas into the low 80s.

A weak, yet efficient southerly flow will set up Friday night and persist through the weekend. Saturday will see highs in the upper 80s and perhaps low 90s.

Sunday has a better chance for reaching the 90s, provided enough sun shines and no showers or storms pop up. For now, the chances for rain look to mainly be to the south over Pennsylvania, but this could still change over the coming days.

Temperatures look as though they will stay hot for much of next week and possibly beyond. Highs above 85 degrees may become commonplace.

A warmer, more humid air mass could mean more in the way of rain and thunderstorms, and the models do show a greater chance for rain starting next week. However, it is likely that much of this will be hit or miss, so it probably will not be a region-wide solution to the dryness.

More Information:

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.