Weather Through Thursday
High pressure over the southeastern United States is attempting to nose its way northward while a localized speed maximum in the jet stream is dropping southeast out of Canada. Both features have their eyes on our region.
For the most part, the high pressure will win out today. Skies are starting out sunny through most of the region and will continue to be so through the morning and early afternoon. Fair weather clouds will begin to mix in with the sunshine later this morning as temperatures rise.
Highs today are expected to be above 85 degrees for all but the higher elevations of Cortland County and the western Southern Tier. Upper 80s are likely in many of the urban areas and the typically warmer northern Finger Lakes.
As the disturbance in the jet stream glances by late this afternoon, a few showers and storms will be possible. These will be highly isolated and mainly contained to the northern half of the region. Some gusty winds or small hail cannot be ruled out, but most areas will not see rain, let alone severe weather.
Winds today will be from the west and west-northwest. Wind speeds will be 5-10 mph with a few gusts exceeding 25 mph, especially in the general Rochester area.
Lingering showers early this evening will dissipate, leaving partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Ample sunshine and a steady south wind will push temperatures upward on Wednesday. There is little standing in the way of widespread highs at or slightly above 90 degrees. The best chance for temperatures to sneak into the mid 90s will be from Rochester to Penn Yan to Syracuse. A few higher elevations, mostly in the western Southern Tier, will stick to the upper 80s.
Dewpoints on Wednesday will be into the 60s, making it feel muggy in addition to hot. The heat index value will be a couple of degrees warmer than the actual temperature. Heat Advisories may be issued for parts of the region later today.
A stray spit of rain is not totally out of the question tomorrow but looks unlikely. Late in the evening, after 9 PM, a few showers and thunderstorms may move into the far western reaches of the area, west of I-390.
Weekend Into the Weather and Beyond
Wednesday night will be on the upper end of the typical nighttime temperatures we see over the course of the year. Few, if any, places will drop below 70 degrees, and larger urban areas like Syracuse may not even reach 75 degrees overnight.
This will present the area with an unstable airmass from the start on Thursday as a weak cold front moves in. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the morning hours and possibly into the early afternoon.
There are still questions about how many showers and storms will develop, and undoubtedly some areas will see little to no rain once again.
Temperatures will quickly rise into the mid 80s on Thursday but should spend most of the afternoon in the upper 70s and low 80s.
Scattered storms will be possible on Friday, especially across the southern half of the region. Temperatures look similar to today, with plenty of mid 80s and some upper 80s mixing in.
Likewise, Saturday will follow the path of Wednesday, with sunshine, south winds, and highs pushing into the 90s.
The forecast gets interesting Sunday and Monday as a frontal boundary sets up over the region. If the front stays overhead or just south of the region, our chances for rain look good.
Just to the south of the front, temperatures will really soar, with triple-digit heat possible as close as Pennsylvania and New Jersey. If the front stays further north, Sunday at least could be another hot day, possibly even hotter than Wednesday or Saturday, though breaking 100 degrees is unlikely.
Temperatures next week look slightly above average with several more chances for rain. Warm, stormy weather may even persist into early August.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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