Cold front takes edge off the heat, but brings little rain

finger lakes weather forecast thursday july 21 2022 sun clouds showers storms cold front
Most areas will not see rain until late Sunday, though temperatures will back off a little for today and Friday before rising again this weekend. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Not Quite as Hot

A pair of cold fronts associated with low pressure over Canada will move through the Finger Lakes today.

The first front is making its way through the region early this morning. The radar is clear of any precipitation with this front, though patches of clouds are scattered about.

Between the fronts, expect sunshine mixing with some clouds. Temperatures will rise from the warm start and should be into the low and mid 80s by the midday hours. A few areas may even push into the upper 80s or close to 90 degrees.

The second front will move in during the midday and early afternoon hours. A few isolated showers and storms will attempt to develop over the area. Many areas will not see any of these showers and will remain dry throughout the day. Most of the showers will move east of the region by 3 PM.

Clouds will decrease during the late afternoon and skies will be clear by this evening. Temperatures will likely lose a couple of degrees during the late afternoon before the normal loss of daytime heating this evening.

Southwest winds will blow at 10-15 mph this morning and into the early afternoon, shifting to the west following the passage of the second front. Gusts of 25-30 mph will be possible, with some higher gusts west of Canandaigua Lake into Western New York. As temperatures dip late this afternoon, so too will wind speeds.

Clear skies and lighter winds overnight will team up with dry air behind the front to make for a slightly more comfortable night. Look for lows to mainly be in the mid 60s.

Another small disturbance will swing through to Friday, but the rain will fare about as well as it does today.

Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds, and a few stray showers and storms will pop up during the afternoon hours as the feature moves in. Areas south of the northern tips of the Finger Lakes (excluding Keuka Lake) will have the best chance for one of these showers or storms.

There is a small chance for storm cells to briefly contain some strong winds. However, even areas that see some rain will not see much, and most areas will not see any.

Winds will be variable on Friday with the disturbance passing through, but speeds should remain light at around or just over 5 mph. Temperatures will remain quite warm with highs in the mid and upper 80s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday july 21 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Heat Builds Back, Breaks with Rain… Hopefully

By Friday night, winds will be back to the south and southwest and hot air will seep back into the region. Overnight lows Friday night will average out to the upper 60s, but some places will not drop below 70 degrees.

Southwest winds and ample sunshine will drive temperatures back into the upper 80s and low 90s Saturday afternoon. Humidity levels will be low, with dewpoints only in the mid 50s.

There is only an outside chance for an isolated shower in the afternoon. Anything that falls will be brief and light. Very few places will even see that.

Saturday night will be another warm one, with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Southwest winds will be in place overnight and will increase after sunrise Sunday. Wind speeds will build to 10-15 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph. As usual with southwest winds, and like today, the strongest gusts will be west of Canandaigua Lake.

How hot it gets on Sunday will partially depend on showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The later these hold off, the warmer it gets. The models continue to trend towards hotter weather, and low and mid 90s look as though they will become widespread.

Showers and storms will increase Sunday night into early Monday. This rain looks to be more widespread and beneficial than anything that falls today or tomorrow.

Still, with the triggering front moving through late at night or early Monday morning, there are questions on just how widespread the rain becomes. I would not be surprised to see widely variable rain amounts, ranging from under a quarter inch to over an inch by the time the rain moves out Monday morning.

This front will break the heat, though, with highs Monday and Tuesday in the low 80s and overnight lows in the lower half of the 60s. Temperatures may push to the mid 80s on Wednesday, but more unsettled weather late in the week will prevent any surges of heat from returning. Highs in the 80s should persist into early August.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday july 21 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.