Heat and Humidity Rise
An elongated high pressure system stretches along the Eastern Seaboard this morning.
On the backside of this high, and out ahead of a system moving through the Mid-west, a broad southerly flow will pump warm air northward.
With the high pressure nearly overhead, skies will be sunny much of the day today. Only some thin clouds associated with the leftovers of thunderstorms will push into the area this afternoon. A few fair weather clouds will be possible, but they should be small and limited.
Wind speeds today will be light, clocking in near or just over 5 mph. Still, with the abundance of sunshine, the wind will help push temperatures upward.
Most areas will make it into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. With dewpoints locked into the 50s, though, it will be a dry heat.
Thin clouds will continue on and off through the night, and southwest winds will increase closer to 10 mph. Dewpoints will also be on the rise. Combined, these factors will lead to a warm and muggy night. Lows across the Southern Tier will be around 70, but throughout the northern Finger Lakes, closer to 75 degrees. A few urban areas may have a hard time even getting that low.
Thursday will undergo rapid heating during the morning and early afternoon, sending temperatures into the low and mid 90s. Dewpoints will rise through the 60s and into the low 70s by the late afternoon. Heat index values of 95-100 degrees are likely, and several Heat Advisories have already been issued.
By about 4 PM tomorrow, a small disturbance will move in, touching off some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected, but some locally heavy downpours will be possible. The activity will start localized but will spread broader over time. By sunset, the activity should begin to wind down and dissipate.
While a good portion of the region may end up seeing rain on Thursday, there will be areas that see little to no rain. It is impossible to tell where the thunderstorms will initiate and how they will evolve.
Friday should not be nearly as hot thanks to on and off showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Most areas should see at least some rain on Thursday, and again, locally heavy downpours will be possible. With light winds aloft, severe weather is not expected.
While temperatures may only top out in the low to perhaps mid 80s, it will remain muggy with dewpoints in the low 70s. That will help temperatures start the day around 70 degrees and keep nighttime temperatures similar.
Scattered showers and storms will continue to pop up on Saturday, Sunday, and possibly Monday. However, the chances for rain will decrease each day, and most areas will probably not see rain on a particular day.
Temperatures will start to creep back up, with highs in the mid 80s Saturday, upper 80s Sunday, and pushing 90 degrees again on Monday. Dewpoints will remain around 70 throughout the entire period. By Monday, most people will be very tired of the humidity.
The high humidity will continue to keep nighttime temperatures near or above 70 degrees. In fact, once temperatures break out of the 60s this morning, many areas may not see 60s again for another week or more.
Rain chances will increase again Tuesday or Tuesday night as a strong cold front moves through. This front will sweep away the humidity and the heat. For at least a few days late next week, highs should be contained to the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s and low 60s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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