Hit Or Miss Rain
A broad area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is cut off from the jet stream and sitting over New York State.
Beneath the low, there are plenty of clouds this morning and a few stray showers. While a few peeks of sun may be possible here and there, much of the day looks as though it will be rather cloudy.
Showers will increase this afternoon. Like yesterday, the showers will be slow-moving as they drift from east to west or southeast to northwest. Not all areas will see rain, and many that do will not see much. However, a few localized pockets of heavier rain will be possible if stronger showers remain in place for 30-60 minutes.
A little thunder and lightning may accompany the stronger showers. Some blustery outflow winds from these storms will also be possible, but nothing severe is expected.
There seems to be a slight preference on the models for the southern half of the region for these showers, with a possibility of that being narrowed down further to the southwestern quadrant. However, there is not much confidence to be had in the models pinpointing the areas of most likely development in a scenario like this, so the entire region at least has a chance for some showers.
The rain showers will diminish this evening, but a few stray sprinkles will continue to be possible through the overnight and into early Wednesday.
On Wednesday, a surface low will lift north into New England, possibly spreading some extra moisture our way. This could lead to more numerous, but still scattered, showers and storms. These will have a little more wind to work with and should track from north to south across the region during the afternoon.
With the clouds and showers both today and tomorrow, temperatures may have a difficult time reaching 80 degrees. A few pockets will likely make it there today, but tomorrow, most places should see highs in the mid to perhaps upper 70s.
Temperatures overnight tonight will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. If some clearing takes hold, slightly cooler temperatures will be possible.
By Thursday, the chances for rain will start to diminish as both lows begin to pull away. There will still be some stray showers about, but they should be small, weak, and less widespread.
Briefly Warmer, More Rain?
Friday may end up being the pick day of the week to get things done outside. No rain is expected with a mix of sun and clouds.
Temperatures will nose their way upward with highs mostly in the low 80s. Pockets of mid 80s are likely as well, though. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s, so it should not feel too muggy.
Saturday will add several more degrees onto the highs with upper 80s and pockets of near 90 degree temperatures expected. There is a question of whether or not some scattered afternoon storms will make it into the region. At this time, the best chance for rain looks to be over the Southern Tier, and the western Southern Tier in particular.
The chances for showers and storms will increase on Sunday. However, the precipitation should remain scattered, so some areas will probably get through the weekend with no rain at all. The extra showers and storms should prevent it from getting quite as warm, but highs will still make it to the mid 80s.
Rain chances will continue to climb on Monday and Tuesday as a low pressure system moves through. Both days have a chance for widespread showers and storms with locally heavy downpours. If this scenario holds, we could make some small gains against the rainfall deficit. However, it is still a week out and a lot can change between then and now.
There may be some additional chances for rain late next week as well, with temperatures returning to the upper 70s and low 80s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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