Weekend warming trend kicks off after cold morning today

finger lakes weather forecast friday september 16 2022 sun clouds cool morning warm weekend
Despite a cold start this morning, temperatures will climb to the 70s for most this afternoon with 80s this weekend. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Warmer Weekend Weather

High pressure overhead this morning has the area off to a chilly start, but warmer temperatures are on the way.

Ideal conditions for radiational cooling have sent temperatures into the upper 30s and low to mid 40s across the area this morning. Skies are clear and winds are calm, and a few areas of patchy river valley fog are present.

Skies will remain sunny this morning, though some thin clouds from the northwest may begin to filter into the region. The clouds will increase this afternoon and may become a thin blanket at times, reducing the amount of sunshine.

Winds will remain light and variable today, but as the high pulls away, the core of the coldest air will as well. By default, this will lead to warming temperatures today. Highs will be warmest roughly west of Cayuga Lake and into the Southern Tier, where mid 70s are likely. Low 70s and some upper 60s will dominate the northeastern quadrant of the region.

By tonight, a south wind will develop, though speeds will remain no higher than 5 mph. Combined with the continued presence of thin clouds and replacement of the cool air mass, nighttime temperatures will be much warmer tonight. Expect morning lows in the mid 50s with some pockets of low 50s.

Saturday will add on a few more degrees with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Skies will remain a mix of sun and clouds with southwest winds near or just over 5 mph.

A frontal boundary to the north is looking like it will remain north on Sunday. The forecast has trended back towards dry weather as a result, which also means warmer temperatures.

Between the northern ends of the Finger Lakes and Lake Ontario, a stripe of temperatures in the mid 80s will be possible. Low 80s are expected for most of the rest of the region, with a few higher elevations sticking right around 80 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday september 16 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Cold Fronts Next Week

On Monday, low pressure moving along the frontal boundary will cause it to move southward. A few showers may move in during the morning hours, but widespread rain and thunder is expected for the afternoon.

Some localized heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible, but at this time, there does not seem to be a significant flooding or severe threat.

Behind the front, a few showers may linger early Tuesday before skies brighten. Temperatures will be knocked back a bit with highs in the mid 70s.

By Wednesday, highs will again be pushing 80 degrees as south winds ahead of another cold front take hold. The day is expected to be dry with sun and clouds.

The second cold front will move through on Thursday. Rain and some thunder will be likely with a much sharper drop in temperature. Highs on Thursday will be near 70, but Friday and Saturday next week may struggle to reach 60 degrees. Temperatures may be hard-pressed to get back to 70 degrees during the final days of September.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday september 16 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.