A Few Showers from Ian
Clear skies overnight have much of the region off to a frosty start, but clouds on the edge of Hurricane Ian will soon slide into the Finger Lakes.
The center of Ian, which has restrengthened into a Category 1 Hurricane, remains off the coast of South Carolina. However, the first thin clouds emanating out from the storm are pushing into the Southern Tier early this morning.
The clouds will continue to spread north through the morning hours. Much of the time, the sun will shine through these clouds with little trouble. There may even be some breaks of blue sky as individual bands of clouds pass through.
At other times, the clouds will be thicker and the sunshine more limited. Gradually, the clouds will become thicker, especially overnight tonight and into Saturday.
A strong high pressure system overhead will do its best to block Ian’s northward progress. The flow between these two systems will result in a light northeast wind today that will pick up over the weekend.
High temperatures this afternoon will top out near or just above 60 degrees. The amount of sunshine that can filter through the clouds will make a difference of a couple of degrees. The clouds will hold temperatures in the mid and upper 40s tonight.
No rain is expected today or tonight, but a few showers may try to sneak in from the south on Saturday. The best chance for some rain will be roughly from Bath to Watkins Glen to Cortland and southward, including Elmira and Ithaca. A stray shower further north cannot be ruled out but seems unlikely.
Any rain that falls in these southern areas should be spotty and light, but multiple showers could move through over the course of the day. It will be a close call as Ian and the high pressure system struggle to wrestle control of our area from one another.
Northeast winds will blow between 5-10 mph on Saturday with highs near or just above 60 degrees. Nighttime temperatures will again remain in the mid and upper 40s.
Sunday will be more like today than Saturday, just in reverse. The day will start with thicker clouds, which should gradually thin and diminish throughout the day. Rain is once again not expected.
Winds will be a bit stronger, still coming in from the northeast. Wind speeds will be around 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Wind gusts could reach 30 mph along the shore of Lake Ontario in Wayne and Monroe counties.
Temperatures will be a touch cooler with the increase in wind speed, especially if the sun does not break through the clouds significantly until late in the day. Look for highs in the upper 50s with pockets of low 60s.
Skies may not clear completely Sunday night, but should do so enough to allow temperatures to fall. Overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s to the low 40s are possible, with the variation due to geographic influences.
Monday looks to have a mix of sun and clouds with dry conditions. The remains of Ian will still be meandering through the Mid-Atlantic region, so our winds will remain from the north-northeast. Wind speeds will be less than on Sunday, but should still be above 5 mph.
The wind will continue to hold cooler air in place, so even with the increase in sunshine, highs will still struggle to get beyond 60 degrees. Nighttime temperatures should again drop into the 30s and low 40s.
By Tuesday, Ian will jog eastward, shifting our winds to a more northwesterly direction. Temperatures should break into the low 60s with another day of mixed skies.
Ian will finally lose its influence on Wednesday as winds shift to the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. Plenty of sunshine is expected with some late clouds. Highs should push into the upper 60s and a few places may hit 70.
Reaching 70 degrees will be more likely on Thursday, provided the front does not arrive until the afternoon. Once it does, showers will move in for several hours before cool air pushes back in.
Behind the front, highs will be in the 50s for several days, and may even spend a day struggling to get that warm.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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