Temperatures will continue to be well above average for late October for the next several days.
A large area of high pressure extends along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains and through New England. To the west, a strong storm system is moving through the northern Plains. This setup continues to support a broad southerly flow of warm air throughout the eastern half of the nation.
Just off the Mid-Atlantic coast is a small, weak low pressure system. This low is spreading some moisture northeastward, butting up against the high pressure.
A few showers this morning have just snuck into the eastern Finger Lakes. Areas along and east of an Elmira to Ithaca to Syracuse line will see a few of these showers before they dissipate by mid-morning.
Further west across the region, skies are mostly clear and will remain as such for much of the day. Clouds will remain further east but will mix with on-and-off breaks of sunshine.
Winds will be weak today with speeds under 5 mph. What whispers of wind there are will come from the east or southeast.
Nonetheless, high temperatures today will mostly be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. The best chance for mid 60s will be across Tioga County in the far southeast, where the clouds will be the most persistent.
Clouds and wind speeds will increase tonight, though areas of clear skies are still expected early, and wind speeds will only be a bit above 5 mph, coming in from the south and southeast. The combination of clouds and winds will keep nighttime temperatures very mild. Many areas will see lows in the mid 50s, which is where the climatological average daytime high temperatures are.
Tuesday will have similarities to today. Temperatures will be warm, with many areas around or even above 70 degrees. Sunshine will mix with clouds, and a few stray showers will dot the region, especially in the east.
Winds will continue to come in from the south, increasing to around 10 mph. Clouds, south winds, and a few showers will stick around through the night. Overnight temperatures will again stick to the mid 50s.
Wednesday will be the final day of this pattern. Temperatures will once more top out around 70 degrees, and a few showers from the coastal low will spiral back into our region. During the afternoon, rain chances will increase, especially across the western half of the region, as a cold front moves in from the west.
Near Average Temperatures
Behind this cold front, the warm air will disappear, but it will not turn abnormally cold. Instead, temperatures will simply settle in near the seasonal averages.
Thursday will likely start out with some clouds before sunshine increases. A stray morning shower off Lake Erie cannot be ruled out, but most of these should dissipate well before sunrise.
Winds will turn to the northwest and become blustery, with speeds over 10 mph and gusts over 25 mph. Afternoon highs will range through the 50s with most areas somewhere close to 55 degrees.
Wind speeds will drop to around 5 mph and wind directions will turn northerly Thursday night. A few thin clouds may pass through, but temperatures should drop back into the mid 30s. This is about where our average lows are now.
Friday will see a gradual increase in clouds, but no rain is expected. Some sunshine may be able to filter through the clouds at times. North winds will continue with speeds around or just over 5 mph. Temperatures should be very close to the same as on Thursday, mostly in the mid 50s.
Over the weekend, temperatures should begin to nose their way higher, despite morning lows continuing to reach the mid 30s. Saturday will have highs in the upper 50s while Sunday may reach the low 60s.
No precipitation is expected during the weekend, and even clouds may be hard to come by.
Temperatures will remain slightly above average into the early half of next week as well. Highs may easily be in the 60s Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday.
Eventually, rain will move in, probably towards Tuesday and again by the following weekend. However, cooler air looks to remain absent well into early November.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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