Much cooler today, but warmer weather returns ahead of significant rain potential

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday november 8 2022 sunny chilly tropical storm nicole
It will be another sunny day today, but noticeably cooler. Sub-Tropical Storm Nicole continues to demand attention with heavy rain increasingly possible in the FLX on Friday. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

High Pressure Dominates

A large area of high pressure centered over eastern Canada is spilling southward across the eastern United States, all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.

As the high has built in, winds have shifted to a more northerly direction. A few clouds moved through along this wind shift during the predawn hours but are quickly departing the area early this morning.

Skies will be blue and sun-filled once again for the rest of the day. However, the north winds will make for a noticeably cooler day. Those winds will blow at near or just over 10 mph today with gusts around 25 mph. The wind speeds will be greater in the morning than in the afternoon.

Few areas will manage to break 50 degrees today. Urban centers and the broad river valleys of the Southern Tier have the best shot at doing so. Most areas will be in the upper 40s, with higher elevations only reaching the mid 40s.

These temperatures are much closer to the seasonal averages than our recent weather has been but are just a couple degrees below average.

The north wind will continue to diminish this evening and will eventually turn to the southeast after midnight. A few more stray clouds will drift through during an otherwise clear, moonlit night.

It will be a cold night, and for many, the coldest so far this season. Even the warmest lakeshore locations will be at or just below the freezing mark of 32 degrees. Many areas will drop into the 20s, especially across the Southern Tier and Central New York. Some areas could find themselves below 25 degrees.

The wind will continue to turn and will be nearly due south much of Wednesday. Wind speeds will generally be under 10 mph with gusts around 20 mph.

Temperatures will make a jump with the south winds, ranging from around 55 degrees in the higher terrain, especially in Cortland County, to around 60 degrees in the Genesee Valley into Rochester. Skies will once more be blue and sun-filled.

Wednesday night will be clear, but the south wind will increase. Temperatures will stay in the 40s across roughly the northern half of the region with upper 30s to the south. Wind gusts over higher terrain could approach 30 mph.

Much of Thursday will be sunny, but clouds will start to build in late, signaling a period of active weather that will usher in a major pattern change. For now, though, Thursday will see highs returning to the mid 60s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday november 8 2022 improved alt text coming to this graphic soon
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Tropical Storm Nicole and Old Man Winter

While the high pressure system brings us sunshine over the next few days, it will shift its position to the North Atlantic. This change in position will facilitate our wind shift and rise in temperatures.

The high will also steer Tropical Storm Nicole towards and into eastern Florida, likely strengthening into a minimal hurricane with an expansive wind field just before landfall Wednesday night.

Nicole will make a gradual turn northward before accelerating to the north-northeast Friday into Saturday. The exact track of Nicole will continue to be adjusted over the coming days, but it is very important to realize that graphics showing the path of the center of Nicole will not accurately portray the path of its impacts.

A large area of rain is expected to accompany Nicole, with a particularly heavy stripe of precipitation on the west side of the center of the storm. Models have been trending towards and congregating on this heavy rain passing through the Finger Lakes.

There is still time for this to shift, so whether the core of the heaviest rain will move over our region or not is still uncertain. An inch or more of rain seems likely, but it is too early to tell how high the totals may go.

Regardless, rain should push in from the south sometime on Friday, with the best chance for heavy rain coming during the evening and overnight hours.

There could also be blustery winds with the rain, especially over the eastern half of the region. The wind does not look excessive at this point, but could be similar to some of the windy days we have had recently if that part of the storm unfolds here.

finger lakes weather tropical storm nicole located northeast of the bahamas, winds of 50 mph moving north-northwest at 8 mph
The 8AM Tuesday statistics on Sub Tropical Storm Nicole from the National Hurricane Center. Click to enlarge.

By Saturday, Nicole will be merging with another low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. This will help accelerate Nicole northward while also wrapping dry air into our region. A few showers may still be possible on Saturday, but the steady, widespread rain should be gone.

Cold air will move in with the dry air, and temperatures should hold steady or fall slightly on Saturday, with most of the day in the upper 40s.

Lake effect will kick up late in the day, initially as rain but then turning to snow. Wind direction is a bit uncertain, so the areas most likely to see snow are as well. Flurries will continue into Sunday and even early Monday.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. This will become a common temperature range for daytime highs throughout next week. Morning lows will frequently be down into the 20s.

There will be an active storm track across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. If any of these systems venture far enough north, it could mean some mixed precipitation or snow. At this time, though, there are no identifiable threats to be concerned about.

Temperatures are unlikely to rebound anytime soon with below average, wintry feeling cold lasting at least until Thanksgiving and probably well beyond.

Get a Great Calendar. Support a Great Cause.

There are so many things to love about the FLX Weather 2023 Calendar and Almanac. I was very deliberate in planning this to maximize functionality, beauty, educational value, and enjoyment. It goes far beyond other calendars and I know you, or those you gift it to, will delight in it day after day, month after month.

Pre-ordering the calendar is also a great way to support FLX Weather for the coming year. Costs are rising, but calendar sales will give me a solid foundation for the year to come, ensuring you get the latest details on upcoming weather events without the hype and misleading or confusing information.

Nearly 250 calendars have already been preordered, but the presale period is ending in just eight days. If you miss out on the presale period, you will not be able to get the early-bird pricing, and you will have to tap into the limited supply of extras that will be available, based on the professional printer quotas.

You do not want to miss out on this, so reserve your copy today. While you are at it, cross a few names off your holiday list early this year by ordering a few extra copies to give as a great, unique gift!

» Just 8 days left to preorder! Click here to reserve yours!

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Zip Code Forecasts

» Your Forecast

» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday november 8 2022 improved alt text coming to this graphic soon
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
calendar presales end in 8 days!

Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.