High Pressure Dominates
A large area of high pressure centered over eastern Canada is spilling southward across the eastern United States, all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.
As the high has built in, winds have shifted to a more northerly direction. A few clouds moved through along this wind shift during the predawn hours but are quickly departing the area early this morning.
Skies will be blue and sun-filled once again for the rest of the day. However, the north winds will make for a noticeably cooler day. Those winds will blow at near or just over 10 mph today with gusts around 25 mph. The wind speeds will be greater in the morning than in the afternoon.
Few areas will manage to break 50 degrees today. Urban centers and the broad river valleys of the Southern Tier have the best shot at doing so. Most areas will be in the upper 40s, with higher elevations only reaching the mid 40s.
These temperatures are much closer to the seasonal averages than our recent weather has been but are just a couple degrees below average.
The north wind will continue to diminish this evening and will eventually turn to the southeast after midnight. A few more stray clouds will drift through during an otherwise clear, moonlit night.
It will be a cold night, and for many, the coldest so far this season. Even the warmest lakeshore locations will be at or just below the freezing mark of 32 degrees. Many areas will drop into the 20s, especially across the Southern Tier and Central New York. Some areas could find themselves below 25 degrees.
The wind will continue to turn and will be nearly due south much of Wednesday. Wind speeds will generally be under 10 mph with gusts around 20 mph.
Temperatures will make a jump with the south winds, ranging from around 55 degrees in the higher terrain, especially in Cortland County, to around 60 degrees in the Genesee Valley into Rochester. Skies will once more be blue and sun-filled.
Wednesday night will be clear, but the south wind will increase. Temperatures will stay in the 40s across roughly the northern half of the region with upper 30s to the south. Wind gusts over higher terrain could approach 30 mph.
Much of Thursday will be sunny, but clouds will start to build in late, signaling a period of active weather that will usher in a major pattern change. For now, though, Thursday will see highs returning to the mid 60s.
Tropical Storm Nicole and Old Man Winter
While the high pressure system brings us sunshine over the next few days, it will shift its position to the North Atlantic. This change in position will facilitate our wind shift and rise in temperatures.
The high will also steer Tropical Storm Nicole towards and into eastern Florida, likely strengthening into a minimal hurricane with an expansive wind field just before landfall Wednesday night.
Nicole will make a gradual turn northward before accelerating to the north-northeast Friday into Saturday. The exact track of Nicole will continue to be adjusted over the coming days, but it is very important to realize that graphics showing the path of the center of Nicole will not accurately portray the path of its impacts.
A large area of rain is expected to accompany Nicole, with a particularly heavy stripe of precipitation on the west side of the center of the storm. Models have been trending towards and congregating on this heavy rain passing through the Finger Lakes.
There is still time for this to shift, so whether the core of the heaviest rain will move over our region or not is still uncertain. An inch or more of rain seems likely, but it is too early to tell how high the totals may go.
Regardless, rain should push in from the south sometime on Friday, with the best chance for heavy rain coming during the evening and overnight hours.
There could also be blustery winds with the rain, especially over the eastern half of the region. The wind does not look excessive at this point, but could be similar to some of the windy days we have had recently if that part of the storm unfolds here.
By Saturday, Nicole will be merging with another low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. This will help accelerate Nicole northward while also wrapping dry air into our region. A few showers may still be possible on Saturday, but the steady, widespread rain should be gone.
Cold air will move in with the dry air, and temperatures should hold steady or fall slightly on Saturday, with most of the day in the upper 40s.
Lake effect will kick up late in the day, initially as rain but then turning to snow. Wind direction is a bit uncertain, so the areas most likely to see snow are as well. Flurries will continue into Sunday and even early Monday.
High temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. This will become a common temperature range for daytime highs throughout next week. Morning lows will frequently be down into the 20s.
There will be an active storm track across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. If any of these systems venture far enough north, it could mean some mixed precipitation or snow. At this time, though, there are no identifiable threats to be concerned about.
Temperatures are unlikely to rebound anytime soon with below average, wintry feeling cold lasting at least until Thanksgiving and probably well beyond.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. 
