Transitioning Weather
Lower atmospheric moisture left behind by a departing low pressure and enhanced by the Great Lakes will get trapped beneath an incoming high pressure system.
Low, thick clouds are widespread throughout the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States this morning, and the Finger Lakes region is no exception. With light northwest winds in place, showers and spits of drizzle off Lake Ontario also dot the region.
There will not be much change in the weather today as northwest winds lock this setup into place. Most of the time, it will be overcast with some drizzle and the occasional shower. If there are any glimpses of sunshine, they will come in the afternoon.
Temperatures are starting out in the mid and upper 30s this morning. The lack of sunshine and northwest winds will limit the daytime heating to just a few degrees, with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Tonight, the temperature will drop into the low and mid 30s. It will remain cloudy, and lake effect will briefly become more organized. A small band of lake effect will develop southeast of Lake Ontario and will travel south and westward through the region.
The clouds may well still be too warm for snowflake growth, so much of what falls may be rain and drizzle. For areas that slip below 32 degrees, a light glaze of ice may develop. This will especially be possible away from the lakes and urban centers and over higher elevations.
Overnight lows will make their way into the 25-30 degree range as the lake effect dissipates overnight and the clouds gradually begin to break up. A few clouds may linger after sunrise Friday, but then high pressure will take over.
Most of Friday will have sunny, blue skies. No precipitation is expected, and new clouds will not move in until after sunset. Winds will be from the north and northeast at just over 5 mph. This will ensure temperatures do not rise too far, with highs in the mid and locally upper 30s.
Mid 20s will be widespread Saturday morning with pockets of low 20s. Skies will be a mix of sun and mainly thin clouds, which should persist much of the day.
Late in the afternoon, the clouds may become more widespread and thicker. Winds will be from the east and highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.
Watching Weather Systems
In the medium to long-range forecast, there are two systems that have my attention.
First will be a weak low pressure system that will move into Michigan on Sunday, then redevelop along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
As this process unfolds, light snow is likely to develop across the Finger Lakes. Some rain may mix in at times over the northern and western parts of the region, and accumulations in these areas should be minimal.
To the east and southeast, however, several inches of snow may accumulate, especially over higher elevations. This will be a light snow over many hours, so snowfall rates will low, and thus travel conditions should be generally fair.
The snow is expected at any time on Sunday, but especially during the afternoon hours. Snow showers will persist into Sunday night and the first half of Monday.
Low temperatures on both Sunday and Monday morning will be near 30. Highs Sunday will be in the low and mid 30s, while Monday will mostly be in the low 30s.
Tuesday looks sunny between systems. Clearing skies Monday night will drop temperatures into the 20s and locally 10s by Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning will have similar temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will reach the mid 30s with upper 30s on Wednesday.
Thin clouds will build in and gradually thicken on Wednesday ahead of a more potent weather system. The models have shown above-average consistency and cohesion on the general expectations, though the details are still far from certain.
This means it is probably safe to assume active, possibly impactful weather late next week. Whether that means a mixed bag of precipitation, an ice event, significant snow, or none of the above remains to be seen.
Be wary of hype and continue to monitor the latest information you can trust right here.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Don’t Miss an Important Update
