The arctic air that moved in over the weekend will fully retreat today, giving way to a period of above average temperatures to close out 2022 and welcome in 2023.
A warm front is draped across southern Canada and is producing snow as close as the far shore of Lake Ontario and into northern New York. This snow should stay to the north, and a dry day is expected across the Finger Lakes.
Clouds will be in place, though, thanks to the close proximity of the front. Many of the clouds may be of the thin variety, so some filtered sunshine will be possible at times. Some periods of the day may even end up more on the sunny side if the clouds are thin enough.
South winds developed overnight and have already been warming the temperatures during the predawn hours. This warming will be accelerated as the sun climbs higher in the sky, even with the clouds. South winds will blow with speeds of 5-10 mph and peak gusts around 20 mph.
The result will be highs reaching the upper 30s and low 40s this afternoon. A few mid 40s will even be possible in the northern lake plains, centered on Wayne, Ontario, and northern Seneca counties, as well as the always warm Dansville. Higher elevations are the areas most likely to not quite make it to 40 degrees today.
After sunset tonight, temperatures will slide back into the low and mid 30s, with some upper 20s across the southeastern Finger Lakes. After the initial drop this evening, not much movement is expected with the temperature overnight thanks to continued thin clouds and a steady southerly breeze.
For comparison, the climatological averages for late December are highs near or a bit above 30 degrees, with lows near or just below 20 degrees.
The warm up will continue on Thursday, aided by an increase in sunshine. Clouds will break up early in the morning, and mostly sunny skies should dominate until the second half of the afternoon. Then, a new area of cloudiness will move in, signaling unsettled weather for the weekend.
Afternoon highs should be at or above 45 even in the higher elevations. Meanwhile, low 50s will be possible across the northern Finger Lakes.
Unsettled But Mild Weekend
Clouds will quickly thicken late Thursday, and throughout Thursday night, a few spits of rain or some drizzle will become possible. Areas that still have snow on the ground could also see fog develop as the moisture in the atmosphere increases. Nighttime temperatures will stay in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Friday will remain cloudy with areas of drizzle and some stray showers. Any rainfall will not amount to much, but it will be a grey, dreary day much of the time. A few breaks of sun may develop for the afternoon, though.
It will be warm, with south winds around 10 mph continuing to push warm air into the region. Many areas should be at or above 50 degrees, particularly if some sun does make it out in the afternoon. Higher elevations may not quite reach 50 degrees, particularly across Cortland and Allegany counties.
Clouds will persist Friday night and into early Saturday, but without much in the way of rain. That will change as we get deeper into Saturday, with showers increasing from the west during the afternoon. Widespread, steady rain looks possible for Saturday evening, which is New Year’s Eve.
Rain is likely to continue through midnight and into the first hours of 2023, gradually tapering off to showers Sunday morning. Some sunshine may then work out for Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will take a small hit from the clouds and rain. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid and upper 40s, while Sunday is in the low and mid 40s. Overnight temperatures Saturday night should stick around 40 degrees.
The next weather system will quickly move in behind the weekend system. Clouds will be plentiful on Monday ahead of the system with highs in the mid 40s. Tuesday looks rainy, but mild, with highs possibly pushing toward 50 degrees once again.
A third system will be possible hot on its heels, coming in on Thursday if it makes it into our region at all. Cooler weather will gradually build in late next week and beyond, with temperatures near or slightly above average with highs in the 30s.
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