Chances for Rain
A departing area of high pressure has the Finger Lakes off to a start of sunshine and rising temperatures early this morning.
And while the temperatures will keep rising today, a weak low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes into Canada will bring clouds and showers by this afternoon.
Already, some thin clouds are streaming into the region. These will gradually increase and thicken this morning, and the afternoon should be more cloudy than not. Scattered light rain showers will increase during the mid and late afternoon hours.
The rain today will be hit or miss, and some areas may not see any at all. Those that do will see light rain amounts.
South and southwest winds will blow with speeds near or slightly over 10 mph. Wind gusts will be mostly near 30 mph, though higher elevations will gust closer to 35 mph.
The warmest air will make it into the far western areas of the Finger Lakes for areas such as Rochester and Dansville. Upper 40s are likely here, but low 50s are not out of the question. Most of the rest of the Finger Lakes will be in the mid 40s, with some low 40s in the hills around Cortland County.
Tonight, temperatures will fall to the upper 30s and low 40s during the evening, and the low and mid 30s overnight.
Spits of precipitation will persist, especially near Lake Ontario, on northwest winds. The clouds will be too warm for snowflake production, so most of what falls will be drizzle.
This could lead to a few isolated slick spots Wednesday morning if any drizzle falls in areas that just slip below freezing.
Clouds and drizzle will gradually burn off Wednesday morning as winds shift again and the connection to Lake Ontario is broken. Sunshine should increase for the afternoon with highs in the low and mid 40s.
Temperatures Wednesday night will drop to the mid 20s, then rise back to around 30 by sunrise as clouds and southeast winds increase.
Some scattered showers will pass through Thursday morning, mostly as rain, but with a few pockets of mixed precipitation also possible. There will be a better chance for rain during the midday and afternoon hours, with rainfall amounts between a quarter and a half an inch.
Late Week and Weekend Weather
Temperatures on Thursday will mostly be in the low 40s, but will rise into the mid and upper 40s during the evening. It will be a very brief warm-up, and by Friday morning, temperatures will drop back to the mid and upper 30s.
Friday will then follow up with its own warmth and it could end up the warmest day of the week. Just how warm it gets may depend partly on how much sun is available. Expect a mix of clouds and at least some sun, with highs at least in the upper 40s.
The one and only chance for snow in the near future remains to be on Saturday, but the models have significantly backed off on the snow potential. As the current projections and trends indicate, only some scattered snow showers are to be expected.
I need to see several more runs of the models consistently showing this before I am fully on board with discounting some accumulation, but since I was never very high on the potential in the first place, my expectations for Saturday remain low as far as snow goes.
Temperatures will take a dip regardless of whether it snows or not, with highs mostly in the mid 30s.
The mild air will move right back in on Sunday with highs returning to the 40s. Sunshine will be possible but remains uncertain this far in advance. Monday should be equally mild, but is much more likely to be cloudy.
Next week continues to look as warm, if not warmer than this week. Especially towards the latter half of next week, temperatures could be well above average.
It continues to look like the warm-up late next week will be followed by another brief but strong temperature crash next weekend before temperatures quickly rebound.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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